- The Padres are -275 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-275) on Tuesday, July 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Pirates vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 44-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 49-52 ATS.
Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 +110 | O 8 -105 | +220 |
| Padres | -1.5 -135 | U 8 -115 | -275 |
Pirates vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 84.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+14.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+9.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+12.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+12.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+11.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.65 Units / 59% ROI)
Padres vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Padres vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Padres vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -600 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Padres vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
| Blake Snell | 7.5 -145 | 7.5 +110 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+15.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+10.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+3.20 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.65 Units / 51% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 91 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 94 games (+10.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 47 games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games at home (+5.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 46-54 against the Run Line (-22.05 Units / -16.58% ROI).
- 44-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -3.75% ROI
- 52-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 4.55% ROI
- 43-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.8 Units / -12.54% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 49-52 against the Run Line (-6.9 Units / -5.54% ROI).
- 48-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.3 Units / -17.77% ROI
- 41-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.25 Units / -15.31% ROI
- 52-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.45 Units / 6.78% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (843/1,884) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 95th Percentile.
37 of Rich Hill’s 118 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown fastballs up 62% of the time (447/720) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Rich Hill has a strikeout rate of just 14% (3 SO in 22 PAs) with two-strikes — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 59 of 453 batters (13%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has allowed three-ball counts to 33% of batters they faced (148/453 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .129 (26-for-201) against Blake Snell’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 100th Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 58% (1,138/1,951) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 16-28 (.364) after a road win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Pirates are just 36-133 (.213) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
The Pirates are just 77-16 (.828) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Pirates are just 101-135 (.428) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 6-18 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Padres are just 5-100 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Padres are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .223 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .228 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 314 walks in 2,734 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 728 walks in 7,082 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 98 walks in 898 PA’s (11%) when leading off an inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 65% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Pirates pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 62 double plays in 742 opportunities (8%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 939 of 10,065 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,385 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Padres vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Alek Jacob (Padres): July, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
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