- The Padres are -200 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-200) on Wednesday, July 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Pirates vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 44-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 50-52 ATS.
Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -115 | O 8.5 -115 | +165 |
| Padres | -1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -105 | -200 |
Pirates vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 78.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+10.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 22 games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 61% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+10.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+10.80 Units / 20% ROI)
Padres vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Padres vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
Padres vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Johan Oviedo | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 73 games (+17.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+11.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 59 games (+8.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+2.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 92 games (+12.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 95 games (+11.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+7.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+6.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 53 games (+5.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 46-55 against the Run Line (-23.05 Units / -17.2% ROI).
- 44-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -4.61% ROI
- 52-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 3.6% ROI
- 44-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.8 Units / -11.51% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 50-52 against the Run Line (-5.9 Units / -4.69% ROI).
- 49-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.3 Units / -16.78% ROI
- 41-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.25 Units / -16.06% ROI
- 53-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.45 Units / 7.61% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Johan Oviedo has walked 29 of 177 batters (16%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (279/493) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fourth Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has thrown breaking pitches 59% of the time (272/457) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .108 (4-for-37) against Johan Oviedo — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .243 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (283/650) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (306/886) in non-two strike counts this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 96th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has an average spin rate of 3232.6 RPM on curveballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 2524.2 — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (127/278) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 6-130 (.044) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Pirates are just 62-93 (.400) after a loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Pirates are just 36-134 (.212) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Pirates are just 49-83 (.371) on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 5-100 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Padres are 40-7 (.851) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .222 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .298 (3,040 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres are batting just .200 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres hitters have drawn 728 walks in 7,095 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 424 walks in 3,889 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 65% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 941 of 10,102 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games on the road since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,547 of 16,242 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,385 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.78 (906.1 IP) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Padres vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Alek Jacob (Padres): July, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
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