- The Phillies (72-55) are -300 favorites vs the Pirates (47-79)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (3-4), 3.85 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Noah Syndergaard (8-8), 3.77 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+240) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-300) on Sunday, August 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).
The Pirates vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 46-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 66-59 ATS.
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +2.5 -115 | O 9 -115 | +240 |
| Phillies | -2.5 -105 | U 9 -105 | -300 |
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+8.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- JT Brubaker has hit the Strikeouts Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.35 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jake Marisnick has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.10 Units / 59% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 51 games (+17.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 51 games at home (+14.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+11.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 39 games (+10.95 Units / 26% ROI)
Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -225 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -125 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Syndergaard | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -120 |
| Roansy Contreras | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.40 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 70 of their last 122 games (+15.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.20 Units / 26% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 61-61 against the Run Line (-7.95 Units / -5.2% ROI).
- 46-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.3 Units / -7.36% ROI
- 54-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -8.87% ROI
- 60-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 0.41% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 66-59 against the Run Line (+5.95 Units / 3.92% ROI).
- 71-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.75 Units / 4.86% ROI
- 61-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -1.82% ROI
- 58-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.75 Units / -6.36% ROI
Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roansy Contreras has walked 5 of 24 left-handed batters (21%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has not struck out any hitters in 24 PA’s vs left-handed batters — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 65% (13/20) against Roansy Contreras against right-handed batters — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — second Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has walked 7 of 54 batters (13%) — 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Noah Syndergaard has allowed 28 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has had second base stolen on him 23 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has had third base stolen on him 5 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has allowed a slugging percentage of .759 (22 Total Bases / 29 ABs) in late innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .400 — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 86-23 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 20-43 (.317) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Pirates are just 51-123 (.293) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Pirates are just 15-69 (.179) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 13-41 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Phillies are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 21-3 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .144 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .466 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .553.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 31% on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .774 (1,377 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Phillies are batting .285 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,377 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Phillies are batting .308 against LHP this month (18 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 225 of 2,499 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,044 of 10,975 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,293 of 13,202 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH since the start of last season (6,994 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (3,068 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
The Phillies have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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