Pirates vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 28

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 28, 2022, 9:51 AM
  • The Phillies (72-55) are -300 favorites vs the Pirates (47-79)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (3-4), 3.85 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Noah Syndergaard (8-8), 3.77 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+240) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-300) on Sunday, August 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Pirates vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 46-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 66-59 ATS.

Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+2.5 -115O 9 -115+240
Phillies -2.5 -105U 9 -105-300

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+8.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • JT Brubaker has hit the Strikeouts Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.35 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Jake Marisnick has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.10 Units / 59% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 51 games (+17.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 51 games at home (+14.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+11.35 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 39 games (+10.95 Units / 26% ROI)

Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Bryce Harper 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Bryson Stott 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Garrett Stubbs 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Brandon Marsh 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Bryce Harper 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Bryson Stott 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Garrett Stubbs 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Bryce Harper 0.5 -115 0.5 -125
Bryson Stott 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Garrett Stubbs 0.5 +195 0.5 -300

Phillies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Noah Syndergaard 4.5 -115 4.5 -120
Roansy Contreras 4.5 -105 4.5 -140
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.40 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 70 of their last 122 games (+15.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.20 Units / 26% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 61-61 against the Run Line (-7.95 Units / -5.2% ROI).

  • 46-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.3 Units / -7.36% ROI
  • 54-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -8.87% ROI
  • 60-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 0.41% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 66-59 against the Run Line (+5.95 Units / 3.92% ROI).

  • 71-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.75 Units / 4.86% ROI
  • 61-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -1.82% ROI
  • 58-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.75 Units / -6.36% ROI

Roansy Contreras has walked 5 of 24 left-handed batters (21%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has not struck out any hitters in 24 PA’s vs left-handed batters — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 65% (13/20) against Roansy Contreras against right-handed batters — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — second Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has walked 7 of 54 batters (13%) — 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Noah Syndergaard has allowed 28 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has had second base stolen on him 23 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has had third base stolen on him 5 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has allowed a slugging percentage of .759 (22 Total Bases / 29 ABs) in late innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .400 — second Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Pirates are just 86-23 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 20-43 (.317) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Pirates are just 51-123 (.293) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Pirates are just 15-69 (.179) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Phillies are 13-41 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Phillies are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 21-3 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Pirates are batting just .144 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .466 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .553.

The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 31% on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .774 (1,377 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Phillies are batting .285 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .264.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,377 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

The Phillies are batting .308 against LHP this month (18 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 225 of 2,499 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,044 of 10,975 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,293 of 13,202 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH since the start of last season (6,994 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (3,068 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

The Phillies have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Phillies vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.