• The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Pirates
• Pirates vs Phillies Over / Under today: 10.5 Runs
• Pirates / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | SNPT

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-130) on July 2, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 pm in Philadelphia, PA.

This season, the Pirates are 43-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 33-53 ATS.

Pirates vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Jared Jones 1-1, 5.77 ERA
• Phillies starting pitcher: Alan Rangel 0-1, 4.50 ERA

Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Pirates vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+14.30 Units / 286% ROI)
• Konnor Griffin has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+12.55 Units / 49% ROI)
• Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 68% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+25.70 Units / 257% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.85 Units / 49% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+15.15 Units / 46% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.50 Units / 50% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.35 Units / 29% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+12.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.95 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 45 away games (+3.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.15 Units / 17% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.65 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.30 Units / 41% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 42-43 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -1.74% ROI).

• 43-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -8.86% ROI
• 50-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.7 Units / 13.26% ROI
• 34-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.8 Units / -21.75% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 33-53 against the Run Line (-24.2 Units / -23.85% ROI).

• 49-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 1.26% ROI
• 38-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.4 Units / -11.88% ROI
• 45-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 3.72% ROI

Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Pirates are just 2-22 (.083) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Pirates are 34-8 (.810) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

The Pirates are 25-18 (.581) after a loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.

The Pirates are just 16-109 (.128) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Phillies are 8-35 (.186) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.

The Phillies are 5-35 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .055.

The Phillies are 34-3 (.919) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

The Phillies are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .787.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

The Pirates are batting .309 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

The Pirates are batting .373 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of .806 (1,756 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 516 of their 1,488 plate appearances (35%) versus relief pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .281 (1,574 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are batting just .219 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .227 (1,770 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .644 (1,574 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Pirates won just 15% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 40 double plays in 659 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

Bet now on Pirates vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM

Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.