- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker, 3.60 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler, 18.90 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH+
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Friday, March 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Clearwater.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Pirates vs Phillies Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Pirates are 2-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 3-6 ATS.
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -115 | O 11 -110 | +150 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -105 | U 11 -110 | -185 |
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 67.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.10 Units / 2% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 47 away games (+6.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 121 games (+14.08 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.93 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 5-5 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -13.06% ROI).
- 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -48.83% ROI
- 7-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.9 Units / 44.55% ROI
- 2-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -50.68% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 3-6 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -32.72% ROI).
- 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -3.54% ROI
- 7-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.7 Units / 46.53% ROI
- 2-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -56.92% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (330/993) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Hitters chased just 45 of JT Brubaker’s 305 elevated fastballs out of the zone (15%) last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 29% — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (655/1,230) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Hitters swung at 54% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (371/693) with two-strikes last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season (189 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,694/3,826) in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH against his fastballs since the start of the 2021 season (598 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 90.3
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.3 MPH on inside pitches since the start of the 2021 season (459 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 85.3
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 52-8 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Phillies batted .266 against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,323 PA’s) against LHP since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Phillies vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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