- The Phillies are -225 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+185) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-225) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Pirates are 15-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 21-22 ATS.
Pirates vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney 2-3, 3.18 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 1-0, 5.91 ERA
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -115 | O 8.5 +100 | +185 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -130 | -225 |
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 65.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+18.00 Units / 300% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.30 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+12.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+13.50 Units / 169% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.70 Units / 41% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+10.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.25 Units / 86% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+4.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+4.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.40 Units / 22% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 18-26 against the Run Line (-13.25 Units / -23.43% ROI).
- 15-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.05 Units / -24.39% ROI
- 16-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -23.24% ROI
- 25-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.5 Units / 15.43% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 21-22 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -4.94% ROI).
- 25-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 1.25% ROI
- 19-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -13.17% ROI
- 23-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 4.88% ROI
Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -325 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Andrew Heaney (PIT) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Heaney has allowed an OPS of 1.090 (35 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .676 — first Percentile.
72% of Andrew Heaney’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed a slugging percentage of .619 (26 Total Bases / 42 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .359 — third Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (15 Total Bases / 15 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .365 — first Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters swung at 52% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (288/553) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (680/1,284) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 60% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased 136 of Ranger Suarez’s 274 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 50%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a in-zone of just 35% (449/1,284) in two strike counts since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 7-59 (.106) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 11-39 (.220) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .365.
The Pirates are just 0-15 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 5-13 (.278) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies were 28-22 (.560) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Braves (15th best runs scored) today.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .329 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .633 (1,199 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .679 (9,849 PA’s) against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .507 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Phillies batted .256 with two outs in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
The Phillies are batting .255 with two outs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Games involving the Phillies have gone OVER in 83% of their games (71.8% ROI) when underdogs in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
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