- The Rays (37-32) are -225 favorites vs the Pirates (29-40)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (2-5), 4.72 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (3-2), 2.00 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-225) on Friday, June 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Pirates vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 29-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 33-36 ATS.
Pirates vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -115 | O 7 -105 | +180 |
| Rays | -1.5 -105 | U 7 -115 | -225 |
Pirates vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s matchup with 57.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kevin Kiermaier has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 10 games at home (+5.15 Units / 51% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Rays vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Rays vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -120 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
Rays vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -160 |
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -160 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 31 away games (+9.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 26 away games (+6.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 60 games (+5.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 26 away games (+5.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 26 away games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+7.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.85 Units / 20% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 31-38 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -13.11% ROI).
- 29-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.27% ROI
- 29-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.05 Units / -12.03% ROI
- 35-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 3.51% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-36 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -1.5% ROI).
- 37-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -5.48% ROI
- 31-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.8 Units / -10.34% ROI
- 36-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 2.86% ROI
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .411 (131-for-319) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .314 (97-for-309) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.0 MPH on non-fastballs since the start of last season (233 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 86.9
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 42% (225/533) against Mitch Keller this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of .283 (26/92) against Jeffrey Springs on sliders since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .141 — first Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has a strikeout rate of 47% (27 SO in 57 PAs) in PAs ending on fastballs away since the start of last season — 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — 96th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has struck out 33% (91/279) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 8th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of .283 (26/92) against breaking balls from Jeffrey Springs since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .143 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Pirates are just 74-18 (.804) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
The Pirates are just 43-100 (.301) on the road since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Pirates are just 11-35 (.239) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Rays are 22-15 (.595) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Rays are 15-5 (.750) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .673.
The Rays are 82-61 (.573) on the road since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Rays are 64-6 (.914) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .302 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Pirates are batting just .205 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .228 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 296 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Rays have scored 1.81 runs per game (413/228) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.44.
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .443 (1,374 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Rays hitters are slugging just .224 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 194 of 2,005 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 253 of 2,521 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (971.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Pirates pitchers have walked 254 of 2,658 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 32 of 618 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 163 of 2,608 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 125 of 2,080 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (1072.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Rays vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D10
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Hamstring, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Quad, D10
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
- Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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