Pirates vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 24

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 24, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Rays (37-32) are -225 favorites vs the Pirates (29-40)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (2-5), 4.72 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (3-2), 2.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSUN

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-225) on Friday, June 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Pirates vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 29-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 33-36 ATS.

Pirates vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -115O 7 -105+180
Rays -1.5 -105U 7 -115-225

Pirates vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s matchup with 57.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rays vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 19% ROI)

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Kevin Kiermaier has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 10 games at home (+5.15 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 51% ROI)

Rays vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brett Phillips 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Taylor Walls 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Yandy Diaz 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Rays vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brett Phillips 0.5 -115 0.5 -120
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Randy Arozarena 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Taylor Walls 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Yandy Diaz 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Rays vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brett Phillips 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Taylor Walls 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Yandy Diaz 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Rays vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jeffrey Springs 6.5 +110 6.5 -160
Mitch Keller 5.5 +110 5.5 -160
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 31 away games (+9.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 26 away games (+6.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 60 games (+5.20 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 26 away games (+5.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 26 away games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+7.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.85 Units / 20% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 31-38 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -13.11% ROI).

  • 29-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.27% ROI
  • 29-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.05 Units / -12.03% ROI
  • 35-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 3.51% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-36 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -1.5% ROI).

  • 37-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -5.48% ROI
  • 31-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.8 Units / -10.34% ROI
  • 36-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 2.86% ROI

Opponents are hitting .411 (131-for-319) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .314 (97-for-309) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.0 MPH on non-fastballs since the start of last season (233 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 86.9

Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 42% (225/533) against Mitch Keller this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of .283 (26/92) against Jeffrey Springs on sliders since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .141 — first Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has a strikeout rate of 47% (27 SO in 57 PAs) in PAs ending on fastballs away since the start of last season — 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — 96th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has struck out 33% (91/279) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 8th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — 92nd Percentile.

Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of .283 (26/92) against breaking balls from Jeffrey Springs since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .143 — first Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Pirates are just 74-18 (.804) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.

The Pirates are just 43-100 (.301) on the road since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.

The Pirates are just 11-35 (.239) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Rays are 22-15 (.595) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.

The Rays are 15-5 (.750) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .673.

The Rays are 82-61 (.573) on the road since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .465.

The Rays are 64-6 (.914) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .302 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

The Pirates are batting just .205 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.

The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .228 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.

Rays hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 296 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Rays have scored 1.81 runs per game (413/228) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.44.

Rays hitters have an OPS of just .443 (1,374 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.

Rays hitters are slugging just .224 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Pirates pitchers have walked 194 of 2,005 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 253 of 2,521 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (971.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.

Pirates pitchers have walked 254 of 2,658 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 32 of 618 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 163 of 2,608 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 125 of 2,080 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (1072.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.

Rays vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D10
  • Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Hamstring, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
  • Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D15
  • Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Quad, D10
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
  • Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rays vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.