- The Red Sox are -155 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-155) on Monday, April 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Pirates vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 1-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 1-2 ATS.
Pirates vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | O 9 +100 | +130 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -120 | -155 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 61.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
Red Sox vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
Red Sox vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
| Kutter Crawford | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 84 away games (+5.15 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games at home (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 84 games at home (+3.70 Units / 4% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 1-2 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -46% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -26.67% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -34.33% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 30.77% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 1-2 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -20% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 17.86% ROI
- 3-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 89.55% ROI
- 0-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters batted just .125 (7-for-56) against Johan Oviedo over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has not allowed a walk in his last 50 PAs against a RHH dating back to September 13rd, 2022 — Brusdar Graterol has the longest active streak at 90.
Opponents batted just .150 against Johan Oviedo (3-for-20) when he was behind in the count over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .348 — 96th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo allowed a slugging percentage of just .248 (26 Total Bases / 105 ABs) over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 11th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .404 — 93rd Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of 29% (66/226) versus Kutter Crawford in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 31% (71/226) against Kutter Crawford in 2022 — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 29% (46/158) versus Kutter Crawford on non-fastballs in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
83% of Kutter Crawford’s called strikeouts were low in 2022 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Pirates are just 99-73 (.576) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Pirates are just 52-110 (.321) on the road since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Pirates are just 36-171 (.174) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Pirates are just 117-167 (.412) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Red Sox were just 17-37 (.315) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Red Sox are 69-51 (.575) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2021 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Red Sox were 35-24 (.593) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 in 2022 — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .547.
The Red Sox are 56-73 (.434) when underdogs since the 2021 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .173 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Pirates batted just .142 with two-strikes in 2022 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .805 (6,180 PA’s) at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,202 of 12,474 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 244 of 2,842 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,451 of 14,701 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.61 (1481.0 IP) at home since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.59 (735.0 IP) at home in 2022 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 415 times in 2022 — most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Robert Stephenson (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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