- The Red Sox are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta
- Watch the game on NESN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Pirates vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 2-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 1-3 ATS.
Pirates vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -120 | +120 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +135 | U 9 +100 | -145 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 57.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
Red Sox vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
Red Sox vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roansy Contreras | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+11.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 85 away games (+4.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 85 games at home (+2.70 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 84 games at home (+1.10 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 85 games at home (+0.70 Units / 1% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 2-2 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -20.16% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 12.5% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -3.41% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -3.41% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -40% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -13.16% ROI
- 4-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
- 0-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -100% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (84/144) against Roansy Contreras on fastballs in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 54% (32/59) against Roansy Contreras on elevated fastballs in 2022 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 37% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 66% (35/53) against Roansy Contreras on fastballs away in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 10 innings — the longest active streak is 15.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta walked 73 of 773 batters (9%) in 2022 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta induced opposing hitters to ground into just 6 double plays in 146 opportunities (4%) in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta walked 24 of 219 batters (11%) versus the bottom of the order in 2022 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to September 13rd, 2022 — the longest active streak is 6.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Pirates are just 99-73 (.576) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 36-171 (.174) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Pirates were just 15-37 (.288) vs the 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Red Sox were just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2022 — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 56-73 (.434) when underdogs since the 2021 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Red Sox were just 39-35 (.527) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Red Sox are 69-51 (.575) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2021 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .653 (3,638 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .173 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 244 of 2,851 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.62 (1490.0 IP) at home since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.96.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road since the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.59 (735.0 IP) at home in 2022 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Red Sox vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Robert Stephenson (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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