- The Red Sox are -155 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Corey Kluber
- Watch the game on NESN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-155) on Wednesday, April 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Pirates vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 1-4 ATS.
Pirates vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 +100 | +130 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +130 | U 8.5 -120 | -155 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
Red Sox vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Red Sox vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Corey Kluber | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 70 away games (+5.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 86 away games (+5.00 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 86 games at home (+1.70 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 85 games at home (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -3.75% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 36% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -21.3% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 15.18% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 1-4 against the Run Line (-2.6 Units / -52% ROI).
- 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -31.25% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 55.56% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -61.06% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .337 (64-for-190) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .260 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 45% (168/376) against Mitch Keller on non-fastballs since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .404 (272 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .299 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .408 (448 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .324 — second Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .356 (47-for-132) against Corey Kluber with runners in scoring position in 2022 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .045 (1-for-22) against Corey Kluber in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .381 (45-for-118) against Corey Kluber’s inside fastball since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .257 — 0 Percentile.
Corey Kluber walked 21 of 689 batters (3%) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Pirates are just 36-173 (.172) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Pirates are just 100-74 (.575) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 53-112 (.321) on the road since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Red Sox were just 17-37 (.315) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Red Sox were just 39-35 (.527) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Red Sox are 66-12 (.846) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .808.
The Red Sox are 19-16 (.543) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .263 (52 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .568 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .439 (41 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 37% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,458 of 14,746 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 2 of 43 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% against Red Sox pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Red Sox vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Austin Hedges (Pirates): Concussion, D7
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Robert Stephenson (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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