- The Red Sox are -185 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz, 15.00 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit JetBlue Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-185) on Monday, March 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Fort Myers.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Pirates vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Pirates are 5-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 12-7 ATS.
Pirates vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | O 8.5 +100 | +150 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -120 | -185 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 63.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Reese McGuire has hit the Singles Under in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.65 Units / 29% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games at home (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 8-8 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -9.9% ROI).
- 5-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -26.61% ROI
- 10-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 24.51% ROI
- 5-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -33.24% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 12-7 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 19.75% ROI).
- 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.8 Units / 28.81% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -4.09% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -4.29% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz walked 10 of 69 batters (14%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Ortiz allowed an OPS of just .364 (46 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .705 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .136 (8-for-59) against Luis Ortiz over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz allowed an OPS of just .481 (69 PA’s) over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .702 — 92nd Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .161 (20-for-124) against Garrett Whitlock with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .239 — 97th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has walked 11 of 239 left-handed batters (5%) since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 10th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% — 93rd Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has walked 32 of 609 batters (5%) since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 12th best among among 160 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 93rd Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has allowed an OBP of just .243 (144 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .330 — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Pirates are just 58-133 (.304) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 27-53 (.338) on the road last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 159-22 (.878) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox batted .265 against LHP last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Pirates allowed 1.70 runs per game (273/161) in late innings last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 415 times last season — most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.59 (735.0 IP) at home last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Red Sox vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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