- The Reds are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-145) on Saturday, April 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 0-0 ATS.
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -105 | +120 |
| Reds | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -115 | -145 |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Aristides Aquino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Alejo Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Michael Siani has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 82 away games (+3.15 Units / 3% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill threw his curveball 42% of the time (584/1,396) in non-two strike counts in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (295/930) when he’s behind in the count since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 99th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 52% of the time (481/930) when behind in the count since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Rich Hill elevated 54% of his pitches (219/408) when ahead in the count in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters swung at 53% of Nick Lodolo’s pitches (298/562) with two-strikes in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Nick Lodolo spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 54% (205/382) of the time in 2022 — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last eight games dating back to August 23rd, 2022 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Nick Lodolo located 47% of his pitches inside (262/562) with two-strikes in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 99-73 (.576) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Pirates are just 117-167 (.412) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 36-171 (.174) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Reds are just 40-54 (.426) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Reds were just 23-52 (.307) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .307 in righty-righty matchups since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters had an OPS of just .662 (4,380 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Reds won just 57% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Reds won only 41% of their home games in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.17 (1345.0 IP) on the road since the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,190 of 12,367 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 260 of 2,867 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers walked 130 of 1,427 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,442 of 14,544 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Robert Stephenson (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D15
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