Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 07, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Pirates (33-48) are -110 favorites vs the Reds (28-53)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (1-4), 7.48 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-110) on Thursday, July 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 33-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 35-46 ATS.

Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates-1.5 +145O 9 +100-110
Reds +1.5 -175U 9 -120-110

Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s matchup with 74.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.10 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 48% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.85 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 41% ROI)

Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Donovan Solano 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Diego Castillo 0.5 +360 0.5 -650

Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Donovan Solano 1.5 +240 1.5 -375
Tommy Pham 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Diego Castillo 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Donovan Solano 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jonathan India 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Donovan Solano 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Diego Castillo 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mike Minor 4.5 -160 4.5 +115
Roansy Contreras 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
Mike Minor 5.5 +120 5.5 -175
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 37 away games (+8.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 32 away games (+5.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 72 games (+3.90 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.90 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+10.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 55 games (+1.60 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 55 games (+0.90 Units / 2% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 38-43 against the Run Line (-10 Units / -9.94% ROI).

  • 33-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -2.23% ROI
  • 35-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.7 Units / -9.78% ROI
  • 40-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.4 Units / 1.56% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 35-46 against the Run Line (-17.3 Units / -17.15% ROI).

  • 28-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.5 Units / -21.39% ROI
  • 45-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.1 Units / 6.82% ROI
  • 35-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.9 Units / -16.7% ROI

Roansy Contreras has a strikeout rate of 53% (8 SO in 15 PAs) in late innings this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has walked 9 of 53 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 9% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (38/110) against Roansy Contreras with runners in scoring position this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has allowed an OPS of .935 (53 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .698 — sixth Percentile.

: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 27% (20 SO in 73 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.

Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 41% (52 SO in 128 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Tyler Mahle has thrown his slider 39% of the time (453/1,156) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .352 (32 GB hits out of 91 GBs) against Tyler Mahle this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — first Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Pirates are just 77-20 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 44-105 (.295) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.

The Pirates are just 11-42 (.208) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Pirates are just 2-39 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .082.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Reds are just 22-5 (.815) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .918.

The Reds are just 1-43 (.023) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .110.

The Reds are just 5-42 (.106) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

The Reds are just 1-45 (.022) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .082.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .283 (949 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .367 against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .301 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Pirates hitters have drawn 66 walks in 949 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .623 (1,457 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.

Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Reds hitters have 82 strikeouts in 250 PA’s (33%) over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Reds have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 75%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 204 of 2,111 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 909 of 9,292 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 303 of 3,152 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 263 of 2,627 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.63 (368.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Reds pitchers have walked 304 of 3,132 batters (10%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.88 (252.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.

Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.