- The Pirates (33-48) are -110 favorites vs the Reds (28-53)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (1-4), 7.48 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: – (-), – ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-110) on Thursday, July 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 33-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 35-46 ATS.
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +145 | O 9 +100 | -110 |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | U 9 -120 | -110 |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s matchup with 74.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 48% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.85 Units / 74% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 41% ROI)
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Solano | 1.5 +240 | 1.5 -375 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Minor | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
| Roansy Contreras | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -130 |
| Mike Minor | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -175 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 37 away games (+8.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 32 away games (+5.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 72 games (+3.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.90 Units / 41% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+10.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 55 games (+1.60 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 55 games (+0.90 Units / 2% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 38-43 against the Run Line (-10 Units / -9.94% ROI).
- 33-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -2.23% ROI
- 35-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.7 Units / -9.78% ROI
- 40-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.4 Units / 1.56% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 35-46 against the Run Line (-17.3 Units / -17.15% ROI).
- 28-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.5 Units / -21.39% ROI
- 45-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.1 Units / 6.82% ROI
- 35-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.9 Units / -16.7% ROI
Bryse Wilson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roansy Contreras has a strikeout rate of 53% (8 SO in 15 PAs) in late innings this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has walked 9 of 53 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 9% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (38/110) against Roansy Contreras with runners in scoring position this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has allowed an OPS of .935 (53 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .698 — sixth Percentile.
–: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 27% (20 SO in 73 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 41% (52 SO in 128 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Mahle has thrown his slider 39% of the time (453/1,156) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .352 (32 GB hits out of 91 GBs) against Tyler Mahle this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 77-20 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 44-105 (.295) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Pirates are just 11-42 (.208) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Pirates are just 2-39 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .082.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 22-5 (.815) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .918.
The Reds are just 1-43 (.023) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .110.
The Reds are just 5-42 (.106) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Reds are just 1-45 (.022) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .082.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .283 (949 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .367 against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .301 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Pirates hitters have drawn 66 walks in 949 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .623 (1,457 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Reds hitters have 82 strikeouts in 250 PA’s (33%) over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Reds have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 75%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 204 of 2,111 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 909 of 9,292 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 303 of 3,152 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 263 of 2,627 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.63 (368.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Reds pitchers have walked 304 of 3,132 batters (10%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.88 (252.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Back, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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