- The Reds are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Reds Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-125) on Tuesday, June 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Pirates are 37-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 44-34 ATS.
Pirates vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 8-4, 3.13 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 5-2, 3.35 ERA
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -115 | +105 |
| Reds | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -105 | -125 |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 away games (+13.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+9.40 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 45 games (+18.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 27 games (+17.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+9.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 67 games (+19.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 34 games (+7.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games (+3.65 Units / 7% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+14.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 26 games at home (+13.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+11.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 40-38 against the Run Line (-1.44 Units / -1.42% ROI).
- 37-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -7.24% ROI
- 36-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.5 Units / -6.36% ROI
- 38-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.87 Units / -1.02% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 44-34 against the Run Line (+7.15 Units / 6.88% ROI).
- 37-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -5% ROI
- 33-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.7 Units / -15.95% ROI
- 42-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.3 Units / 6.17% ROI
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
| Hunter Greene (CIN) | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -160 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (82/272) against Mitch Keller this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .270 (169-for-627) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — seventh Percentile.
8 of Mitch Keller’s 30 breaking pitch strikeouts (27%) have been backdoor this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 92nd Percentile.
Mitch Keller has struck out 27% (54/197) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 84th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
64% of Hunter Greene’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .444 (60-for-135) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .342 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .176 (29-for-165) against Hunter Greene this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 92nd Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .859 (116 Total Bases / 135 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .581 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Pirates are just 85-19 (.817) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Pirates are just 15-16 (.484) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Pirates are just 28-47 (.373) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 53-56 (.486) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds are 36-15 (.706) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 26-29 (.473) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 52 strikeouts in 128 PA’s (41%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters have 180 strikeouts in 510 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 410 strikeouts in 1,205 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 27 extra-base hits out of 106 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .151 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Reds are batting just .175 on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Reds hitters have drawn 95 walks in 925 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Reds are batting just .112 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,417 of 15,479 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 27 of 480 batters (6%) over the last 14 days — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 51 of 796 batters (6%) this month (21 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 53% of their games since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The average home run distance against the Reds pitchers this season is 388.5 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.0
Reds pitchers have walked 1,464 of 15,446 batters (10%) since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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