- The Reds (56-82) are -135 favorites vs the Pirates (51-88)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (2-8), 6.11 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (4-10), 5.70 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-135) on Monday, September 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 50-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 64-71 ATS.
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -110 | +110 |
| Reds | -1.5 +140 | U 9 -110 | -135 |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Monday‘s matchup with 57.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+7.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Barrero | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Barrero | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Kyle Farmer | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Barrero | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Minor | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
| Bryse Wilson | 2.5 -155 | 2.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+5.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 28 away games (+3.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.05 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 110 games (+16.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 79 games (+3.70 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 67-68 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -5.42% ROI).
- 50-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.1 Units / -7.96% ROI
- 59-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.45 Units / -10.42% ROI
- 68-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 2.08% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 64-71 against the Run Line (-12.45 Units / -7.5% ROI).
- 54-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.05 Units / -9.68% ROI
- 68-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.35 Units / -2.89% ROI
- 65-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.35 Units / -6.92% ROI
Bryse Wilson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .513 (335 Total Bases / 653 ABs) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .402 — first Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .596 (99 Total Bases / 166 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .384 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .299 (195-for-653) against Bryse Wilson since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .243 — second Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed an OPS of .914 (360 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .693 — third Percentile.
Michael Minor: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .720 (95 Total Bases / 132 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .435 — 0 Percentile.
28 of Mike Minor’s 87 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .504 (113 Total Bases / 224 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .369 — fourth Percentile.
Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .481 (50 Total Bases / 104 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .306 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 89-25 (.781) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Pirates are just 53-125 (.298) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Pirates are just 124-191 (.394) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Pirates are just 29-86 (.252) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 6-159 (.036) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Reds are just 128-22 (.853) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Reds are 24-15 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 16-151 (.096) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .144 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .302 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .243 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Reds are batting just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters are slugging just .354 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Reds hitters are slugging just .386 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Pirates pitchers this month (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 289 of 3,131 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won just 23% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 493 of 5,344 batters (9%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 39 of 328 batters (12%) this month (9 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 514 of 5,309 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .281 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Reds pitchers have walked 237 of 2,655 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Timothy James Zeuch (Reds): Back, D15
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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