Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 12

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 12, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Reds (56-82) are -135 favorites vs the Pirates (51-88)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (2-8), 6.11 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (4-10), 5.70 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-135) on Monday, September 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 50-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 64-71 ATS.

Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -165O 9 -110+110
Reds -1.5 +140U 9 -110-135

Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Monday‘s matchup with 57.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.20 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.90 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+7.75 Units / 27% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Jake Fraley 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Jose Barrero 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Nick Senzel 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600

Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aristides Aquino 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jake Fraley 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jose Barrero 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Kyle Farmer 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Nick Senzel 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Jake Fraley 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jose Barrero 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Nick Senzel 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mike Minor 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Bryse Wilson 2.5 -155 2.5 +110
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+5.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 28 away games (+3.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.05 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 110 games (+16.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 79 games (+3.70 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.20 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.80 Units / 36% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 67-68 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -5.42% ROI).

  • 50-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.1 Units / -7.96% ROI
  • 59-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.45 Units / -10.42% ROI
  • 68-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 2.08% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 64-71 against the Run Line (-12.45 Units / -7.5% ROI).

  • 54-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.05 Units / -9.68% ROI
  • 68-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.35 Units / -2.89% ROI
  • 65-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.35 Units / -6.92% ROI

Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .513 (335 Total Bases / 653 ABs) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .402 — first Percentile.

Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .596 (99 Total Bases / 166 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .384 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .299 (195-for-653) against Bryse Wilson since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .243 — second Percentile.

Bryse Wilson has allowed an OPS of .914 (360 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .693 — third Percentile.

Michael Minor: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .720 (95 Total Bases / 132 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .435 — 0 Percentile.

28 of Mike Minor’s 87 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .504 (113 Total Bases / 224 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .369 — fourth Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .481 (50 Total Bases / 104 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .306 — first Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Pirates are just 89-25 (.781) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 53-125 (.298) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Pirates are just 124-191 (.394) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

The Pirates are just 29-86 (.252) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Reds are just 6-159 (.036) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Reds are just 128-22 (.853) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Reds are 24-15 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Reds are just 16-151 (.096) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Pirates are batting just .144 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .302 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Reds are batting just .243 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

The Reds are batting just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Reds hitters are slugging just .354 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Reds hitters are slugging just .386 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Pirates pitchers this month (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 289 of 3,131 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates have won just 23% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 493 of 5,344 batters (9%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 39 of 328 batters (12%) this month (9 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 514 of 5,309 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .281 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Reds pitchers have walked 237 of 2,655 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Timothy James Zeuch (Reds): Back, D15
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.