- The Rockies (42-49) are -140 favorites vs the Pirates (38-53)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (3-6), 4.88 ERA
- Rockies starting pitcher: José Ureña (0-1), 2.65 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet RM
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (-140) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Denver.
The Rockies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Pirates vs Rockies Over/Under is 12 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 38-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 48-43 ATS.
Pirates vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | O 12 -115 | +115 |
| Rockies | -1.5 +125 | U 12 -105 | -140 |
Pirates vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rockies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 69.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Zach Thompson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jake Marisnick has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+7.15 Units / 72% ROI)
Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Charlie Blackmon has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+12.35 Units / 55% ROI)
- C.J. Cron has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.65 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Charlie Blackmon has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Charlie Blackmon has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Rockies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brendan Rodgers | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Brian Serven | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Rockies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brendan Rodgers | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -200 |
| Brian Serven | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| C.J. Cron | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -250 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -225 |
| Connor Joe | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -250 |
Rockies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brendan Rodgers | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Brian Serven | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Rockies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Urena | 2.5 -115 | 2.5 -115 |
| Mitch Keller | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 82 games (+7.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 90 games (+6.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 50 games (+2.60 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rockies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+10.90 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 80 games (+8.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 46-45 against the Run Line (-4.45 Units / -3.88% ROI).
- 38-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.84% ROI
- 38-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -13.15% ROI
- 47-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.1 Units / 5.05% ROI
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 48-43 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -1.62% ROI).
- 42-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 1.78% ROI
- 44-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -1.54% ROI
- 41-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.65 Units / -7.67% ROI
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .428 (154-for-360) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .303 (222-for-733) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .400 (195 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (462/836) since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
José Ureña: Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .400 (10-for-25) against Jose Urena — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .221 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 49% (26/53) against Jose Urena on the first pitch of at-bats — tied for 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Jose Urena has struck out just 7% (2/30) of left-handed batters he faced — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Jose Urena has walked 5 of 30 left-handed batters (17%) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Pirates are just 81-21 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Pirates are just 49-110 (.308) on the road since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Pirates are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Rockies are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rockies are 33-1 (.971) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Rockies are just 15-27 (.357) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Rockies are just 6-11 (.353) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .661 (2,896 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .365 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies are batting .287 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Rockies hitters have an OBP of .353 (1,887 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Rockies are batting .293 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Rockies have an average HR distance of 411.1 feet since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 271 of 2,717 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 73 of 802 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 8.40 (45.0 IP) at home this month (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.81.
Pirates pitchers have walked 212 of 2,201 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Rockies pitchers this season traveled 496.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.3
Rockies pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% this month (15 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rockies vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Scott Oberg (Rockies): Arm, D60
- Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Undisclosed, D10
- Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Undisclosed, D15
- Helcris Olivarez (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Oblique, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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