Pirates vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 28

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(AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 28, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Pirates are -115 favorites vs the Royals
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
  • Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-105) on Monday, August 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Pirates vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Pirates are 58-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 57-75 ATS.

Pirates vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates-1.5 +140O 9.5 -120-115
Royals +1.5 -165U 9.5 +100-105

Pirates vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 66.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.45 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+12.85 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.65 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Connor Joe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+9.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 31 games (+9.35 Units / 30% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 21 games at home (+12.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Drew Waters has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+11.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+10.75 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Drew Waters has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+10.30 Units / 45% ROI)

Royals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Alika Williams 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Josh Palacios 0.5 +750 0.5 -2500
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Connor Joe 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Royals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Alika Williams 0.5 -165 0.5 +130
Josh Palacios 1.5 +200 1.5 -275
Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +165 1.5 -225
Connor Joe 0.5 -225 0.5 +170

Royals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Alika Williams 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Josh Palacios 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Connor Joe 0.5 +165 0.5 -225

Royals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zack Greinke 2.5 -120 2.5 -105
Johan Oviedo 4.5 -155 4.5 +120
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 103 games (+13.29 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.10 Units / 83% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 34 games (+2.34 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.52 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 21 games at home (+11.55 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+10.90 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 21 games at home (+10.30 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 12 games at home (+9.94 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games at home (+8.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 64-66 against the Run Line (-18.6 Units / -10.85% ROI).

  • 58-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.21% ROI
  • 70-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.95 Units / 7.71% ROI
  • 54-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.4 Units / -15.78% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 57-75 against the Run Line (-29.5 Units / -18.52% ROI).

  • 41-91 when betting on the Moneyline for -34.6 Units / -25.54% ROI
  • 64-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -4.89% ROI
  • 64-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.4 Units / -4.46% ROI

Johan Oviedo has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (345/631) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Johan Oviedo has walked 39 of 230 batters (17%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.

Johan Oviedo has a first-pitch strike rate of just 48% (56/116) over the last 30 days (5 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Johan Oviedo has walked 49 of 322 batters (15%) versus the top of the order since last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (103/780) against Zack Greinke since last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.

Zack Greinke has not allowed a walk in his last 71 PAs against a RHH dating back to June 23rd — Andrew Kittredge has the longest active streak at 111.

Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 14% (151 SO in 1,061 PAs) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% (127/502) against Zack Greinke on low breaking pitches since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 41% — third Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

keys to the game – away

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

keys to the game – home

team hitters – away

team hitters – home

team pitchers – away

team pitchers – home

Royals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
  • Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Nicholas Pratto (Royals): Groin, D10
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
  • Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
  • Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
  • Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
  • Carmen Mlodzinski (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.