- The Royals are -190 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Royals TV Channel: FDKC | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+155) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-190) on Wednesday, July 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO, MO.
This season, the Pirates are 38-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 49-44 ATS.
Pirates vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 6-4, 3.69 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Kris Bubic 7-6, 2.35 ERA
Pirates vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -110 | +155 |
| Royals | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -110 | -190 |
Pirates vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 62.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+14.00 Units / 140% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.60 Units / 69% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 80% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Maile has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Kris Bubic has hit the Strikeouts Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- Luke Maile has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games at home (+5.75 Units / 144% ROI)
- Luke Maile has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Luke Maile has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
Royals Best Bets Today:
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 46-45 against the Run Line (-7.65 Units / -6.38% ROI).
- 38-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.5 Units / -11.33% ROI
- 37-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.2 Units / -19.88% ROI
- 52-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.7 Units / 11.61% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 49-44 against the Run Line (-5.6 Units / -4.25% ROI).
- 45-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -4.16% ROI
- 36-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.77 Units / -23.65% ROI
- 55-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.45 Units / 15.16% ROI
Royals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Royals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Royals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Royals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 2.5 -135 | 2.5 +105 |
| Kris Bubic (KC) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (181/374) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (454/1,027) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown elevated sliders32% of the time (80/248) this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 13% — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 23% (114/494) against Bailey Falter this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .400 (6-for-15) against Kris Bubic when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .203 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 49% (120/245) against Kris Bubic with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .270 (37-for-137) against Kris Bubic when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 15th Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of just .209 (18 Total Bases / 86 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .352 — 93rd Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Pirates are just 10-68 (.128) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 15-49 (.234) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
The Pirates are just 12-34 (.261) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Pirates are just 1-19 (.050) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are 13-1 (.929) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Royals are 19-2 (.905) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Royals are just 21-99 (.175) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .309 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .583 (1,687 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 26% on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .344 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of their PA’s against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won just 4% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
The Royals have allowed 3.64 runs per game (171/47) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.46 (826.2 IP) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
The Royals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
More MLB Reading:
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