- The Twins are -225 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andre Jackson
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Watch the game on BSN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+185) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-225) on Friday, August 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Pirates vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 54-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 57-65 ATS.
Pirates vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -115 | +185 |
| Twins | -1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -105 | -225 |
Pirates vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 80.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Pirates vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+13.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+11.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+10.95 Units / 62% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 away games (+10.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+12.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+11.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+11.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.80 Units / 53% ROI)
Twins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Twins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -115 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
Twins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
Twins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andre Jackson | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -175 |
| Pablo Lopez | 7.5 -150 | 7.5 +115 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 93 games (+16.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 24 games (+5.34 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.89 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 away games (+2.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+4.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+4.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 games at home (+3.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.35 Units / 25% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 59-61 against the Run Line (-17.05 Units / -10.79% ROI).
- 54-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 1.3% ROI
- 64-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.5 Units / 7.27% ROI
- 50-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.05 Units / -15.28% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 57-65 against the Run Line (-10.35 Units / -6.93% ROI).
- 63-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.85 Units / -7.51% ROI
- 57-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.35 Units / -6.21% ROI
- 59-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -2.23% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andre Jackson has struck out 47% (7/15) of right-handed batters he faced — 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Andre Jackson has allowed an OBP of just .133 (15 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .320 — 96th Percentile.
Andre Jackson has a strikeout rate of 36% (12 SO in 33 PAs) over the last 14 days (3 games) — tied for 12th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — 89th Percentile.
The last hit on a Andre Jackson breaking pitch was August 27th, 2021. Hitters are 0 for their last 17 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Zac Gallen has the longest active streak at 22.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (423/597) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .177 (11 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — 98th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (156/416) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .204 (58-for-284) against Pablo Lopez this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 94th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Pirates are just 95-53 (.642) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Pirates are just 16-31 (.340) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Pirates are just 116-166 (.411) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 46-69 (.400) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Twins are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 26-7 (.788) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .613.
The Twins are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 51-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .229 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Pirates are batting just .227 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .370 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 951 strikeouts in 3,468 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (1,161 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .322.
The Twins are batting just .234 against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters have 296 strikeouts in 1,161 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 444 of 4,677 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,028 of 10,904 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.69 (1290.0 IP) at home since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.83 (552.0 IP) at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins pitchers have walked 74 of 1,091 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Joseph Ryan (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Willi Castro (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Joshua Palacios (Pirates): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Dauri Moreta (Pirates): Back, D15
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
Bet now on Pirates vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
