- The Twins are -175 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Watch the game on BSN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-175) on Saturday, August 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Pirates vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 54-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 58-65 ATS.
Pirates vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | O 8.5 -110 | +145 |
| Twins | -1.5 +115 | U 8.5 -110 | -175 |
Pirates vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 75.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+13.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 away games (+11.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+11.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+11.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+10.95 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+13.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+12.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+10.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+10.45 Units / 36% ROI)
Twins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Twins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Twins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Twins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
| Sonny Gray | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 94 games (+17.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 25 games (+4.34 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.39 Units / 15% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+8.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+5.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games at home (+3.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.40 Units / 56% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 59-62 against the Run Line (-18.15 Units / -11.41% ROI).
- 54-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 0.53% ROI
- 64-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.5 Units / 6.46% ROI
- 51-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.05 Units / -14.38% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 58-65 against the Run Line (-9.35 Units / -6.22% ROI).
- 64-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -6.83% ROI
- 57-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -6.91% ROI
- 60-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.46% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (17/71) against Mitch Keller on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .323 (42-for-130) against Mitch Keller with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — fifth Percentile.
102 of Mitch Keller’s 161 strikeouts (63%) have come on fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has thrown inside pitches 41% of the time (206/502) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .299 (23-for-77) against Sonny Gray’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — sixth Percentile.
Sonny Gray has walked 26 of 298 right-handed batters (9%) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 17th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has struck out 41% (11/27) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed an OPS of just .620 (567 PA’s) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .707 — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Pirates are just 16-31 (.340) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .490.
The Pirates are just 7-137 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) after a road win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Pirates are just 8-16 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Twins are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 52-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are just 18-32 (.360) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Twins are just 20-53 (.274) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .230 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates are batting just .228 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .669 (3,234 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Pirates are batting just .187 on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 960 strikeouts in 3,497 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have been successful in 100% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Twins are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Twins hitters are slugging just .155 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,032 of 10,943 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 448 of 4,716 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games at home this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 75 of 1,100 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Joseph Ryan (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Willi Castro (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Back, Day-to-Day
- Matthew Wallner (Twins): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Joshua Palacios (Pirates): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Dauri Moreta (Pirates): Back, D15
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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