- The Twins are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Ryan Borucki
- Twins starting pitcher: Dallas Keuchel
- Watch the game on BSN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-135) on Sunday, August 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Pirates vs Twins Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 55-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 58-66 ATS.
Pirates vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | O 9.5 -110 | +115 |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | U 9.5 -110 | -135 |
Pirates vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 63.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+12.85 Units / 68% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 away games (+11.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+11.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.65 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+14.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+12.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+11.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Twins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Twins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alika Williams | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Twins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Twins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keuchel | 2.5 -185 | 2.5 +135 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 95 games (+16.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 26 games (+3.34 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 15 games (+1.29 Units / 8% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+4.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+3.85 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 60-62 against the Run Line (-17.15 Units / -10.69% ROI).
- 55-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 1.7% ROI
- 65-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.5 Units / 7.15% ROI
- 51-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.05 Units / -15.02% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 58-66 against the Run Line (-10.35 Units / -6.84% ROI).
- 64-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.55 Units / -7.74% ROI
- 58-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.35 Units / -6.11% ROI
- 60-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -2.19% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 83% of Ryan Borucki’s pitches (24/29) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (5 games) — highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 59% — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Borucki has thrown off-speed pitches 86% of the time (77/89) over the last 14 days (5 games) — highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Borucki has thrown breaking pitches 74% of the time (66/89) over the last 14 days (5 games) — 2nd highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Borucki has not walked any of the 22 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters over the last 30 days (11 games) — tied for best among in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried walked 32 of 733 batters (4%) in 2022 — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 93rd Percentile.
Max Fried allowed a slugging percentage of just .186 (64 Total Bases / 345 ABs) when behind in the count in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .272 — 100th Percentile.
19 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in 2022 — 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 93rd Percentile.
56% of Max Fried’s called strikeouts were inside in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Pirates are just 96-53 (.644) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) after a road win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Pirates are just 14-130 (.097) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Pirates are just 46-69 (.400) after a win since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Twins are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 26-8 (.765) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 15-92 (.140) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .228 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .375 against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Pirates are batting just .122 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 975 strikeouts in 3,537 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have been successful in 100% of their bunt for hit attempts this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .298 (1,171 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Twins hitters have 1,273 strikeouts in 4,708 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.83 (552.0 IP) at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,036 of 10,983 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Pirates pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 75 of 1,109 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have walked 342 of 4,604 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Joseph Ryan (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Willi Castro (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Arm, Day-to-Day
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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