- The Pirates are +100 favorites vs the Twins
- Pirates vs Twins Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
- Pirates / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-130) on Friday, July 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN, MN.
This season, the Pirates are 38-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 45-45 ATS.
Pirates vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 4-7, 1.96 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 8-4, 2.76 ERA
Pirates vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -235 | O 6.5 +105 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +180 | U 6.5 -125 | -130 |
Pirates vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Pirates vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+19.50 Units / 195% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.70 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kody Clemens has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+15.30 Units / 255% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+6.95 Units / 34% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 93 games (+19.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 82 games (+16.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 56 games (+13.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+3.30 Units / 8% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 84 games (+10.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games at home (+6.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+5.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 86 games (+4.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 47-45 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -4.6% ROI).
- 38-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.5 Units / -13.04% ROI
- 37-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.4 Units / -21.58% ROI
- 54-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.7 Units / 13.3% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 45-45 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -0.77% ROI).
- 45-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -9% ROI
- 39-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.65 Units / -15.37% ROI
- 50-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.85 Units / 6.65% ROI
Twins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Twins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -295 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -325 |
Twins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +105 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .214 (192 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (24-for-241) against Paul Skenes with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed a slugging percentage of just .133 (32 Total Bases / 241 ABs) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .186 (77-for-415) against Paul Skenes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 97th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has a strikeout rate of 36% (58 SO in 162 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed an OPS of just .454 (62 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.006 — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed a slugging percentage of just .196 (11 Total Bases / 56 ABs) when behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .563 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .179 (10-for-56) against Joe Ryan when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .318 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Pirates are just 12-35 (.255) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Pirates are just 1-20 (.048) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Pirates are just 10-69 (.127) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates are just 15-49 (.234) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Twins are 12-1 (.923) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Twins are just 2-108 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins are just 19-28 (.404) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Twins are just 4-8 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 26% on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .404 (162 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .657.
The Pirates are batting just .206 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .309 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .216 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
The Twins are batting just .130 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .291 (406 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Twins hitters are slugging just .121 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 31% against the Twins pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Pirates vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
