- The Twins are -150 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Twins Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Pirates / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-150) on Saturday, July 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN, MN.
This season, the Pirates are 38-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 45-46 ATS.
Pirates vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Michael Burrows 1-2, 3.66 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Cole Sands 3-3, 4.30 ERA
Pirates vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -170 | O 9 +100 | +125 |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | U 9 -120 | -150 |
Pirates vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 away games (+10.00 Units / 111% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kody Clemens has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games at home (+14.30 Units / 204% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 94 games (+20.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 83 games (+17.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 57 games (+14.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 away games (+9.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 37 games (+1.65 Units / 4% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 85 games (+11.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+6.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 87 games (+5.80 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 48-45 against the Run Line (-4.65 Units / -3.72% ROI).
- 38-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.5 Units / -13.88% ROI
- 37-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.5 Units / -22.4% ROI
- 55-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.7 Units / 14.12% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 45-46 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -1.62% ROI).
- 46-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -8.07% ROI
- 39-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.75 Units / -16.28% ROI
- 51-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.85 Units / 7.54% ROI
Twins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Twins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Twins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows (PIT) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (34/113) against Michael Burrows this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
43% of Michael Burrows’ called strikeouts are elevated this season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 96th Percentile.
20 of Michael Burrows’ 41 strikeouts (49%) have come on changeups this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 98th Percentile.
Michael Burrows has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 11 innings — Adrian Morejon has the longest active streak at 17.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cole Sands has struck out just 13% (10/78) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 5th lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.
Cole Sands has struck out just 13% (10/78) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Cole Sands allowed an OPS of just .429 (44 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count in the 2024 season — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.044 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 7 AB’s against Cole Sands this month (3 games) — tied for best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Pirates are just 12-36 (.250) on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Pirates are just 10-69 (.127) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 1-48 (.020) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Pirates are just 1-20 (.048) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Twins are just 2-108 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins are 12-1 (.923) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Twins are just 4-8 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 25% on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .275 (1,759 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .582 (1,759 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .611 (888 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging just .162 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Twins are batting just .218 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
The Twins are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .147.
The Twins are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 3% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 40 double plays in 632 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Twins pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
More MLB Reading:
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