- The Twins are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker, 5.19 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan, 2.70 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit CenturyLink Sports Complex to take on the Minnesota Twins (-165) on Monday, March 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Fort Myers.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Pirates vs Twins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Pirates are 7-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 9-10 ATS.
Pirates vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -145 | O 9 -110 | +140 |
| Twins | -1.5 +120 | U 9 -110 | -165 |
Pirates vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 64.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.70 Units / 135% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 72 games at home (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 79 games at home (+11.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+7.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+7.05 Units / 14% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 11-11 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -7.26% ROI).
- 7-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.6 Units / -23.43% ROI
- 14-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.25 Units / 29.71% ROI
- 6-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.45 Units / -39.21% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 9-10 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -10.32% ROI).
- 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 6.44% ROI
- 6-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -29.77% ROI
- 11-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.75 Units / 23.28% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (655/1,230) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Hitters swung at 54% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (371/693) with two-strikes last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (330/993) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
JT Brubaker has located his fastball up for a strike just 51% (507/993) of the time since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 29% (115/396) against Joe Ryan last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 19% (47/246) against Joe Ryan since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 28% (69/246) against Joe Ryan since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (134/461) against Joe Ryan since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Pirates are just 58-133 (.304) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 27-53 (.338) on the road last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 15-30 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins are just 10-42 (.192) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins have hit 2,031 balls in play with an exit velocity over 100 MPH since the start of the 2021 season — 5th most in MLB.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Twins hitters have put 40% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers walked 584 of 6,227 batters (9%) last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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