- The Astros are -165 favorites vs the Rangers
- Rangers starting pitcher: Martín Pérez
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Texas Rangers (+140) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-165) on Friday, April 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Rangers vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rangers are 7-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 7-6 ATS.
Rangers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 +100 | +140 |
| Astros | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -120 | -165 |
Rangers vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.25 Units / 80% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+7.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Robbie Grossman has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.10 Units / 86% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.10 Units / 58% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.55 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+9.90 Units / 124% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.10 Units / 90% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Astros vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Brad Miller | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Astros vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brad Miller | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Astros vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brad Miller | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
| Martin Perez | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+5.10 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.95 Units / 35% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 6-6 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -4.61% ROI).
- 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 3.42% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 26.39% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -35.77% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 7-6 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.85% ROI).
- 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -26.32% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.7 Units / 32.53% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -39.93% ROI
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of just 44% (1,091/2,504) against Martin Perez in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.
Hitters swung at 53% of Martin Perez’s pitches (404/767) with two-strikes in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 44% (1,162/2,658) against Martin Perez since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.
Martin Perez had a strike rate of just 63% (1,581/2,504) against right-handed batters in 2022 — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — sixth Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Garcia allowed a slugging percentage of .822 (60 Total Bases / 73 ABs) on low fastballs in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.
Luis Garcia has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 41% (13/32) of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Garcia has located his pitches away 67% of the time (1,854/2,770) against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted .411 (30-for-73) against Luis Garcia on low fastballs in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — third Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rangers are just 36-49 (.424) when favorites since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Rangers are just 32-48 (.400) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.
The Rangers are just 109-72 (.602) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Rangers are just 32-31 (.508) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Astros are 31-15 (.674) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Astros were 31-15 (.674) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Astros are 49-29 (.628) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Astros are 40-34 (.541) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters are slugging just .300 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Rangers are batting just .102 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Rangers hitters had a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters are slugging just .294 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros hitters have just 712 strikeouts in 4,042 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 332 strikeouts in 1,961 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 148 of 1,547 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Rangers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers in 2022 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents batted just .212 against Astros pitchers in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Astros have allowed 3.30 runs per game (287/87) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
The Astros allowed 3.27 runs per game (265/81) on the road in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
Astros vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Knee, D10
- Leody Taveras (Rangers): Oblique, D10
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Glenn Otto (Rangers): Lat, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Spencer Howard (Rangers): Lat, D60
- Corey Seager (Rangers): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Ankle, D15
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