- The Rangers are +105 favorites vs the Astros
- Rangers vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Rangers / Astros TV Channel: KDAF | SCHN | SCH2
The Texas Rangers (+105) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-125) on Friday, July 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX, TX.
This season, the Rangers are 46-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 47-46 ATS.
Rangers vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jack Leiter 4-6, 4.34 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Lance McCullers 2-3, 5.73 ERA
Rangers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -105 | +105 |
| Astros | +1.5 -220 | U 8 -115 | -125 |
Rangers vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.80 Units / 65% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 71% ROI)
- Evan Carter has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+10.10 Units / 67% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Victor Caratini has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+20.30 Units / 203% ROI)
- Cam Smith has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jake Meyers has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+8.70 Units / 87% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+8.30 Units / 104% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 94 games (+16.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 94 games (+15.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 38 away games (+7.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 38 away games (+7.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 93 games (+15.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 58 games (+15.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 60 games (+9.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 85 games (+7.07 Units / 7% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rangers are 47-46 against the Run Line (-5.1 Units / -4.13% ROI).
- 46-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.25 Units / -6.07% ROI
- 36-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.4 Units / -24.96% ROI
- 57-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.95 Units / 16.14% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 47-46 against the Run Line (+2.42 Units / 2.09% ROI).
- 55-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.3 Units / 7.5% ROI
- 39-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.55 Units / -16.25% ROI
- 51-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.3 Units / 8.07% ROI
Astros vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jake Burger (TEX) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Adolis Garcia (TEX) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Astros vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -285 | 0.5 +210 |
| Cam Smith (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Astros vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Adolis Garcia (TEX) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jake Burger (TEX) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Marcus Semien (TEX) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Astros vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Jack Leiter (TEX) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -118 |
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Leiter has walked 13% of opponent 7-8-9 hitters this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 38% of Jack Leiter’s changeup (60/159) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 28% (65/230) against Jack Leiter with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 38% — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .181 (25-for-138) against Jack Leiter this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 93rd Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 40% of Lance McCullers’ pitches (301/757) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Lance McCullers has walked 13% of batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Lance McCullers has allowed three-ball counts to 29% of batters he faced (53/183 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 19% — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 23 of Lance McCullers’ 131 sliders out of the zone (chase rate of 18%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rangers are just 3-13 (.188) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rangers are just 9-17 (.346) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Astros (Ranks third runs allowed) today.
The Rangers are just 2-26 (.071) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Rangers were 39-8 (.830) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .750.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Astros are 27-10 (.730) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are 110-12 (.902) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .862.
The Astros are 32-17 (.653) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .549.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rangers are batting just .159 on changeups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .629 (875 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .693.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .609 (1,034 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Rangers are batting just .221 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have put just 29% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have put 46% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.68 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
The Astros are batting .260 this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .214 against Rangers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .205 against Rangers pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Rangers pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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