Rangers vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 24

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Houston Astros' Yordan Alvarez runs up the first base line against the Los Angeles Angels during the fourth inning of a baseball game Sunday, June 4, 2023, in Houston.
(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 24, 2023, 3:32 PM
  • The Rangers are -115 favorites vs the Astros
  • Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray
  • Astros starting pitcher: Brandon Bielak
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Texas Rangers (-115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-105) on Monday, July 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Rangers vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Rangers are 59-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 51-49 ATS.

Rangers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rangers-1.5 +145O 9 -115-115
Astros +1.5 -175U 9 -105-105

Rangers vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 52.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Josh Jung has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Under in his last 12 away games (+12.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Travis Jankowski has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Marcus Semien has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 49% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in his last 12 games at home (+12.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.05 Units / 68% ROI)

Astros vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Nate Lowe 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Brad Miller 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +400 0.5 -750

Astros vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Nate Lowe 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Brad Miller 0.5 -150 0.5 +115
Mauricio Dubon 1.5 +170 1.5 -225
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -250 0.5 +190

Astros vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Nate Lowe 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Brad Miller 0.5 +220 0.5 -300
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +165 0.5 -225

Astros vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Bielak 4.5 +120 4.5 -160
Jon Gray 4.5 -160 4.5 +125
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 57 of their last 92 games (+25.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 92 games (+24.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 92 games (+23.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 58 of their last 92 games (+20.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 54 of their last 92 games (+11.05 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 69 games (+9.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 65 games (+7.30 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 77 games (+7.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games at home (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.70 Units / 32% ROI)

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 59-41 against the Run Line (+20.45 Units / 16.65% ROI).

  • 59-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +7 Units / 4.9% ROI
  • 52-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +6 Units / 5.46% ROI
  • 42-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.45 Units / -14.01% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 51-49 against the Run Line (-2.2 Units / -1.7% ROI).

  • 56-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -1.46% ROI
  • 48-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.75 Units / -6.96% ROI
  • 50-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -2.16% ROI

Right-handed batters are hitting .471 (8-for-17) against Jon Gray over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.

Jon Gray allowed a batting average of .390 vs right-handed batters (worst)– first Percentile and just .188 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (seventh best among qualified SPs)– 91st Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .460 (23-for-50) against Jon Gray on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .337 — fourth Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .471 (8-for-17) against Jon Gray — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Brandon Bielak has a strike rate of just 57% (267/470) vs left-handed batters this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 63% — fourth Percentile.

Brandon Bielak has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (146/278) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Brandon Bielak has a strike rate of just 59% (638/1,081) this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Brandon Bielak had a strike rate of just 56% (52/92) — 5th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Rangers are just 56-43 (.566) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.

The Rangers are just 1-115 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.

The Rangers are just 108-17 (.864) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.

The Rangers are 24-17 (.585) after a loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Astros are 109-12 (.901) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Astros are 66-34 (.660) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .481.

The Astros are 162-100 (.618) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 34-17 (.667) after a home loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .513.

Rangers hitters have an OPS of .826 (997 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .738.

Rangers hitters have an OPS of .849 (2,077 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of .359 (997 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .322.

Rangers hitters are slugging .297 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Astros hitters have just 504 strikeouts in 2,876 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 884 strikeouts in 4,957 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 183 strikeouts in 1,026 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 210 of 2,330 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Rangers pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Rangers have won 47% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% over the last 14 days (9 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
  • Jose Altuve (Astros): Oblique, D10
  • José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
  • Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Gray (Rangers): Shin, Day-to-Day
  • Corey Seager (Rangers): Thumb, D10
  • Jose Adolis García (Rangers): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Biceps, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.