- The Blue Jays are -135 favorites vs the Rangers
- Rangers starting pitcher: Dane Dunning
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Texas Rangers (+110) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-135) on Monday, September 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Rangers vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rangers are 78-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 68-75 ATS.
Rangers vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 +100 | +110 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -120 | -135 |
Rangers vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 67.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Leody Taveras has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+14.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jordan Montgomery has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+9.50 Units / 8% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+12.05 Units / 86% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Carter | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Blue Jays vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Carter | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Blue Jays vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Carter | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -150 |
| Dane Dunning | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +120 |
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 73 of their last 134 games (+18.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 78 of their last 134 games (+14.46 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 77 of their last 134 games (+11.91 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.80 Units / 25% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 118 games (+11.99 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+11.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 52 games (+6.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+5.09 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 74-67 against the Run Line (+6.85 Units / 3.96% ROI).
- 78-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -1.83% ROI
- 73-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.65 Units / 2.98% ROI
- 62-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -18 Units / -11.64% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 68-75 against the Run Line (-8.35 Units / -4.72% ROI).
- 80-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.95 Units / -3.78% ROI
- 60-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.65 Units / -14.61% ROI
- 76-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.55 Units / 6.06% ROI
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (71/372) against Dane Dunning this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (44/216) against Dane Dunning with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (230/1,072) against Dane Dunning this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 13th Percentile.
Dane Dunning has allowed an OPS of .650 (310 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .500 — sixth Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (43/214) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 10th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 75.4 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (186 balls in play) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 16% (17/104) against Chris Bassitt on curveballs since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.1 MPH on inside pitches since last season (381 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 85.6
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Rangers are just 2-133 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rangers are 28-13 (.683) after a home win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Rangers are just 6-123 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Rangers are just 69-50 (.580) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Blue Jays are 17-11 (.607) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Blue Jays are 11-5 (.688) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Blue Jays are 37-22 (.627) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are 65-98 (.399) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .283.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .352 (1,456 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Rangers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Rangers hitters have a swing rate of 36% on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .571 (2,895 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .524.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .271 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Blue Jays are batting .266 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Blue Jays hitters have just 227 strikeouts in 1,250 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 477 strikeouts in 2,503 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 47 of 458 batters (10%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% against Rangers pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 238 of 2,700 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 182 of 2,727 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 845 of 11,408 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D60
- Otto Lopez (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
- Daniel Jansen (Blue Jays): Finger, D10
- Brandon Belt (Blue Jays): Back, Day-to-Day
- Matt Chapman (Blue Jays): Finger, D10
- Hagen Danner (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Hamstring, D15
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hamstring, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Joshua Jung (Rangers): Thumb, D10
- Jose Adolis García (Rangers): Knee, D10
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