Rangers vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 2

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 02, 2023, 12:48 PM
  • The Brewers are -155 favorites vs the Rangers
  • Rangers starting pitcher: Dane Dunning, 33.75 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Texas Rangers (+130) visit American Family Fields of Phoenix to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-155) on Thursday, March 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Phoenix.

The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).

The Rangers vs Brewers Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Rangers are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 4-0 ATS.

Rangers vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rangers+1.5 -155O 11.5 -110+130
Brewers -1.5 +130U 11.5 -110-155

Rangers vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 56.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Rangers vs Brewers and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Andy Ibanez has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games (+4.45 Units / 111% ROI)
  • Andy Ibanez has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Leody Taveras has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Andy Ibanez has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.50 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Nick Solak has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.10 Units / 70% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Pablo Reyes has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+4.20 Units / 140% ROI)
  • Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 68 of their last 123 games (+18.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 76 away games (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 away games (+8.68 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.65 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 3 games (+3.70 Units / 114% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 52 games at home (+8.80 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+8.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 78 games at home (+6.12 Units / 6% ROI)

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 20.77% ROI).

  • 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 10.08% ROI
  • 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 51.79% ROI
  • 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -61.11% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 4-0 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 84.62% ROI).

  • 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.1 Units / 47.19% ROI
  • 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -8.51% ROI
  • 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -1.2% ROI

Dane Dunning had a strike rate of just 54% (384/708) on sliders last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Dane Dunning has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to August 18th, 2022 — Gerrit Cole has the longest active streak at 11.

Dane Dunning threw fastballs down 48% of the time (493/1,027) last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 97th Percentile.

Dane Dunning has thrown low pitches 56% of the time (670/1,185) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 95th Percentile.

Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 60% of the time (316/530) since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (897/1,458) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes located 67% of his pitches down (1,150/1,719) vs left-handed batters last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes located 65% of his pitches down (516/800) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Rangers are just 53-11 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Rangers are 11-8 (.579) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rangers are just 34-47 (.420) at home last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Rangers are just 49-11 (.817) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Brewers are just 9-35 (.205) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.

The Brewers are just 67-8 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Brewers are 9-53 (.145) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Brewers are just 61-13 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (8,250 PA’s) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Rangers hitters had a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .295 (9,712 PA’s) against RHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.

Rangers hitters had an OBP of just .295 (4,219 PA’s) against RHP last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Brewers hitters averaged 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

The Brewers batted just .230 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Brewers hitters struck out 440 times in 1,711 PA’s (26%) against LHP last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rangers pitchers walked 581 of 6,167 batters (9%) last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
  • Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.