- The Brewers are -155 favorites vs the Rangers
- Rangers starting pitcher: Dane Dunning, 33.75 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Texas Rangers (+130) visit American Family Fields of Phoenix to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-155) on Thursday, March 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Phoenix.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Rangers vs Brewers Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Rangers are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 4-0 ATS.
Rangers vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | +1.5 -155 | O 11.5 -110 | +130 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +130 | U 11.5 -110 | -155 |
Rangers vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 56.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Andy Ibanez has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games (+4.45 Units / 111% ROI)
- Andy Ibanez has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Leody Taveras has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Andy Ibanez has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- Nick Solak has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.10 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+4.20 Units / 140% ROI)
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 68 of their last 123 games (+18.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 76 away games (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 away games (+8.68 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 3 games (+3.70 Units / 114% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 52 games at home (+8.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+8.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 78 games at home (+6.12 Units / 6% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 20.77% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 10.08% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 51.79% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -61.11% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 4-0 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 84.62% ROI).
- 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.1 Units / 47.19% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -8.51% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -1.2% ROI
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dane Dunning had a strike rate of just 54% (384/708) on sliders last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Dane Dunning has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to August 18th, 2022 — Gerrit Cole has the longest active streak at 11.
Dane Dunning threw fastballs down 48% of the time (493/1,027) last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 97th Percentile.
Dane Dunning has thrown low pitches 56% of the time (670/1,185) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 95th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 60% of the time (316/530) since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (897/1,458) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes located 67% of his pitches down (1,150/1,719) vs left-handed batters last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes located 65% of his pitches down (516/800) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Rangers are just 53-11 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rangers are 11-8 (.579) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rangers are just 34-47 (.420) at home last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Rangers are just 49-11 (.817) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Brewers are just 9-35 (.205) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Brewers are just 67-8 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Brewers are 9-53 (.145) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Brewers are just 61-13 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (8,250 PA’s) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Rangers hitters had a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .295 (9,712 PA’s) against RHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Rangers hitters had an OBP of just .295 (4,219 PA’s) against RHP last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters averaged 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers batted just .230 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Brewers hitters struck out 440 times in 1,711 PA’s (26%) against LHP last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers pitchers walked 581 of 6,167 batters (9%) last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
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