- The Rangers are -120 favorites vs the Guardians
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray
- Guardians starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Texas Rangers (-120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+100) on Friday, September 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Rangers vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rangers are 82-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 75-72 ATS.
Rangers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 +100 | -120 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -120 | +100 |
Rangers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 60.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 37 games (+13.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jordan Montgomery has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Leody Taveras has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Josh H. Smith has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+15.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+10.40 Units / 31% ROI)
Guardians vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Carter | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Carter | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Carter | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Guardians vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Jon Gray | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 138 games (+22.54 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 82 of their last 138 games (+18.61 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 80 of their last 138 games (+13.91 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 138 games (+13.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.70 Units / 54% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 131 games (+23.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 105 games (+11.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.34 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 53 games at home (+1.15 Units / 2% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 78-68 against the Run Line (+9.7 Units / 5.37% ROI).
- 82-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -0.38% ROI
- 77-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.55 Units / 4.67% ROI
- 63-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.3 Units / -13.3% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 75-72 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.32% ROI).
- 69-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.8 Units / -10.28% ROI
- 59-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -34.05 Units / -20.98% ROI
- 84-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.55 Units / 12.11% ROI
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .486 (35-for-72) against Jon Gray on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .343 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .181 (55-for-304) against Jon Gray’s non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 91st Percentile.
Jon Gray has a first-pitch strike rate of 67% (403/601) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 94th Percentile.
Jon Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .567 (38 Total Bases / 67 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — sixth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lucas Giolito has allowed an OPS of 1.007 (253 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .740 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% (63/168) against Lucas Giolito in two-strike counts this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 10th Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of .754 (211 Total Bases / 280 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .567 — first Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed 15 home runs on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rangers are just 2-133 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rangers are just 2-48 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Rangers are 23-19 (.548) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
The Rangers are 37-14 (.725) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Guardians are 33-107 (.236) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 22-114 (.162) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Rangers are batting .267 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .350 (1,522 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Rangers hitters are slugging .269 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,159 strikeouts in 11,693 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 242 of 2,745 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% against Rangers pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers pitchers have an ERA of 3.88 (618.2 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.38 (1093.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.5 MPH (3,763 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 98 times since last season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (407.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Guardians vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Michael Kelly (Guardians): Back, D15
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Hamstring, D15
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hamstring, D60
- Maxwell Scherzer (Rangers): Triceps , D15
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Joshua Jung (Rangers): Thumb, D10
- Jose Adolis García (Rangers): Knee, D10
- Leody Taveras (Rangers): Hand, Day-to-Day
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