- The Guardians are -120 favorites vs the Rangers
- Rangers starting pitcher: Dane Dunning
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Texas Rangers (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Saturday, September 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Rangers vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rangers are 82-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 76-72 ATS.
Rangers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
|Spread||Over / Under||Moneyline|
|Rangers||+1.5 -200||O 8 -105||+100|
|Guardians||-1.5 +165||U 8 -115||-120|
Rangers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 54.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 38 games (+12.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jordan Montgomery has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Josh H. Smith has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+10.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+9.85 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+13.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games at home (+10.45 Units / 100% ROI)
Guardians vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
|Evan Carter||0.5 +750||0.5 -3000|
|Robbie Grossman||0.5 +550||0.5 -1400|
|Will Brennan||0.5 +1000||0.5 -10000|
|Nate Lowe||0.5 +525||0.5 -1200|
|Steven Kwan||0.5 +1050||0.5|
Guardians vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
|Evan Carter||0.5 -155||0.5 +120|
|Robbie Grossman||0.5 -160||0.5 +125|
|Will Brennan||0.5 -275||0.5 +200|
|Nate Lowe||0.5 -250||0.5 +180|
|Steven Kwan||1.5 +155||1.5 -210|
Guardians vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
|Evan Carter||0.5 +240||0.5 -350|
|Robbie Grossman||0.5 +195||0.5 -250|
|Will Brennan||0.5 +185||0.5 -250|
|Nate Lowe||0.5 +170||0.5 -225|
|Steven Kwan||0.5 +220||0.5 -300|
Guardians vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
|Tanner Bibee||5.5 +100||5.5 -130|
|Dane Dunning||3.5 -105||3.5 -125|
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 78-69 against the Run Line (+8.7 Units / 4.79% ROI).
- 82-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -0.94% ROI
- 78-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.55 Units / 5.26% ROI
- 63-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.45 Units / -13.92% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 76-72 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 0.21% ROI).
- 70-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.8 Units / -9.68% ROI
- 60-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -33.05 Units / -20.23% ROI
- 84-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.4 Units / 11.31% ROI
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 11% (30/276) against Dane Dunning this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — first Percentile.
Dane Dunning has allowed an OBP of .289 (322 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .262 (61-for-233) against Dane Dunning’s non-fastballs this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 10th Percentile.
Dane Dunning has a strikeout rate of just 38% (122 SO in 322 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 11th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Bibee has allowed three-ball counts to 22% of batters they faced (124/564 PA’s) since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 12% — second Percentile.
Tanner Bibee did not walk any of the 23 batters that he faced — tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed a slugging percentage of just .268 (61 Total Bases / 228 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .428 — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has thrown elevated pitches 46% of the time (215/466) when behind in the count this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rangers are just 6-124 (.046) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Rangers are 23-19 (.548) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Rangers are 71-15 (.826) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Rangers are just 2-134 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
keys to the game – home
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .654 (3,295 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .661 (1,716 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 242 of 2,753 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers pitchers have an ERA of 6.38 (117.0 IP) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.59.
Rangers pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 119 double plays in 1,015 opportunities (12%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.5 MPH (3,763 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Guardians pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,535 times this season — 5th most in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (407.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Guardians vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Michael Kelly (Guardians): Back, D15
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Hamstring, D15
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hamstring, D60
- Maxwell Scherzer (Rangers): Triceps , D15
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Joshua Jung (Rangers): Thumb, D10
- Jose Adolis García (Rangers): Knee, D10
- Leody Taveras (Rangers): Hand, Day-to-Day
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