- The – (60-30) are favorites vs the – (60-30)
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray (6-4), 3.71 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (6-4), 2.85 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Texas Rangers () visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins () on Thursday, July 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Miami.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Rangers vs Marlins Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rangers are 41-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-48 ATS.
Rangers vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | O | ||
| Marlins | U |
Rangers vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s matchup with 63.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 27 away games (+14.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.70 Units / 67% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 34 games (+12.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 34 games (+11.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 38 away games (+11.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 42 games at home (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 42 games at home (+12.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Marlins vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
Marlins vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 -110 |
| Jon Gray | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 79 games (+18.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+12.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 38 away games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 43 away games (+2.15 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games at home (+8.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+5.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 39 games (+3.50 Units / 7% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 52-38 against the Run Line (+10.25 Units / 8.75% ROI).
- 41-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -6.78% ROI
- 41-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -3.68% ROI
- 41-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -3.98% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 43-48 against the Run Line (-10.75 Units / -8.85% ROI).
- 43-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.1 Units / -8.23% ROI
- 43-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.9 Units / -4.87% ROI
- 44-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.9 Units / -2.9% ROI
Jonathan Gray: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jon Gray has allowed an OBP of just .067 (30 PA’s) with two-strikes — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .225 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (11/45) against Jon Gray on low breaking pitches this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (20/80) against Jon Gray’s curve and slider this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 21% (231/1,076) against Jon Gray since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 28% — third Percentile.
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (118/290) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
The last hit on a Pablo Lopez curveball was May 16th, 2021. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his curveball. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 44% (72/165) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .184 (9-for-49) against Pablo Lopez on low fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .271 — 92nd Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Rangers are just 31-7 (.816) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Rangers are 22-5 (.815) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Rangers are just 39-43 (.476) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Rangers are just 12-39 (.235) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Marlins are just 4-31 (.114) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
The Marlins are just 2-39 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Marlins are 27-4 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (9,308 PA’s) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .692 (2,852 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .298 (2,852 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .294 (11,455 PA’s) since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,385 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Marlins hitters have 658 strikeouts in 2,385 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .222 (5,196 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Rangers have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .201 against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.36 (1141.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Marlins vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): Undisclosed, D15
- James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
- Dane Dunning (Rangers): Ankle, D15
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Neck, D10
- Joseph Barlow (Rangers): Blister, D15
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