Rangers vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 21

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 21, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The (60-30) are favorites vs the (60-30)
  • Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray (6-4), 3.71 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (6-4), 2.85 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Texas Rangers () visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins () on Thursday, July 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Miami.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Rangers vs Marlins Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rangers are 41-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-48 ATS.

Rangers vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rangers O
Marlins U

Rangers vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s matchup with 63.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Marlins vs Rangers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 27 away games (+14.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.70 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 34 games (+12.45 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 34 games (+11.75 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Corey Seager has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 38 away games (+11.60 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 42 games at home (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 42 games at home (+12.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 81% ROI)

Marlins vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Brian Anderson 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Marlins vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Brian Anderson 0.5 -145 0.5 +105
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Jacob Stallings 0.5 -110 0.5 -130
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 -120 0.5 -115

Marlins vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Brian Anderson 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Marlins vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Pablo Lopez 5.5 -130 5.5 -110
Jon Gray 6.5 -105 6.5 -135
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 79 games (+18.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+12.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 38 away games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 43 away games (+2.15 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games at home (+8.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+5.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 39 games (+3.50 Units / 7% ROI)

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 52-38 against the Run Line (+10.25 Units / 8.75% ROI).

  • 41-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -6.78% ROI
  • 41-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -3.68% ROI
  • 41-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -3.98% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 43-48 against the Run Line (-10.75 Units / -8.85% ROI).

  • 43-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.1 Units / -8.23% ROI
  • 43-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.9 Units / -4.87% ROI
  • 44-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.9 Units / -2.9% ROI

Jon Gray has allowed an OBP of just .067 (30 PA’s) with two-strikes — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .225 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (11/45) against Jon Gray on low breaking pitches this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (20/80) against Jon Gray’s curve and slider this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 21% (231/1,076) against Jon Gray since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 28% — third Percentile.

Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (118/290) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

The last hit on a Pablo Lopez curveball was May 16th, 2021. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his curveball. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 44% (72/165) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .184 (9-for-49) against Pablo Lopez on low fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .271 — 92nd Percentile.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Rangers are just 31-7 (.816) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Rangers are 22-5 (.815) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Rangers are just 39-43 (.476) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Rangers are just 12-39 (.235) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Marlins are just 4-31 (.114) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.

The Marlins are just 2-39 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Marlins are 27-4 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (9,308 PA’s) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .692 (2,852 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .298 (2,852 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .294 (11,455 PA’s) since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,385 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Marlins hitters have 658 strikeouts in 2,385 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .222 (5,196 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Rangers have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .201 against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.36 (1141.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Marlins vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): Undisclosed, D15
  • James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
  • Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
  • Dane Dunning (Rangers): Ankle, D15
  • Bradley Miller (Rangers): Neck, D10
  • Joseph Barlow (Rangers): Blister, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.