- The Rangers are -145 favorites vs the Mets
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
- Watch the game on WPIX
The Texas Rangers (-145) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+120) on Monday, August 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Rangers vs Mets Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rangers are 73-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 51-79 ATS.
Rangers vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | -1.5 +110 | O 9 -120 | -145 |
| Mets | +1.5 -135 | U 9 +100 | +120 |
Rangers vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+10.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jordan Montgomery has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ezequiel Duran has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Leody Taveras has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+9.85 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+15.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+12.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+10.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)
Mets vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Mets vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Mets vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Jon Gray | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 70 of their last 122 games (+22.24 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 122 games (+22.08 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 72 of their last 122 games (+14.71 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 68 of their last 122 games (+7.05 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games at home (+9.72 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 42 games at home (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.24 Units / 79% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 42 games at home (+4.30 Units / 9% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 73-56 against the Run Line (+17.9 Units / 11.19% ROI).
- 73-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 1.21% ROI
- 65-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.95 Units / 0.67% ROI
- 58-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.3 Units / -9.4% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 51-79 against the Run Line (-38.4 Units / -23.38% ROI).
- 59-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.9 Units / -17.73% ROI
- 53-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.8 Units / -18.82% ROI
- 72-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.6 Units / 9.61% ROI
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jon Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .242 (66 Total Bases / 273 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .345 (70-for-203) against Jon Gray’s fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .263 — second Percentile.
Jon Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .597 (37 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .176 (48-for-273) against Jon Gray’s non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 92nd Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .411 (23-for-56) against Tylor Megill’s elevated fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (74/319) against Tylor Megill with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .488 (84 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: .324 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 56% (178/320) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Rangers are just 1-41 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Rangers are just 0-47 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Rangers are just 1-128 (.008) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Rangers are just 120-20 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Mets are 141-1 (.993) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 2-60 (.032) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Mets are just 5-33 (.132) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Mets are just 11-23 (.324) after a road loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rangers are batting .268 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .354 (1,330 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .776 (3,140 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Rangers hitters are slugging .269 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 693 strikeouts in 3,369 PA’s (21%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Mets are batting just .228 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Mets have scored first in just 38% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rangers have won 58% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Rangers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 41% of their games this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 227 of 2,599 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 487 of 4,958 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hamstring, D10
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Joshua Jung (Rangers): Thumb, D10
- Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers): Elbow, D15
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