Rangers vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 03, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (48-30) are -135 favorites vs the Rangers (37-39)
  • Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray (4-3), 3.89 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (8-4), 4.84 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Texas Rangers (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Rangers vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rangers are 37-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 42-36 ATS.

Rangers vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rangers+1.5 -185O 8 -115+115
Mets -1.5 +150U 8 -105-135

Rangers vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Rangers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.55 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Corey Seager has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 34 away games (+12.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.50 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+10.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+10.90 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 36 games at home (+6.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)

Mets vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
James McCann 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500

Mets vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
James McCann 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Luis Guillorme 0.5 -200 0.5 +135

Mets vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
James McCann 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Mets vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco 4.5 -160 4.5 +115
Jon Gray 4.5 -160 4.5 +115
Carlos Carrasco 5.5 +120 5.5 -175
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 65 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+10.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 56 games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 63 games (+6.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 39 away games (+4.65 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 32 games at home (+16.67 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+12.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 78 games (+12.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 32 games at home (+11.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.15 Units / 21% ROI)

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 45-31 against the Run Line (+10.9 Units / 11.08% ROI).

  • 37-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.47% ROI
  • 32-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -8.81% ROI
  • 36-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 1.08% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 42-36 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 6.15% ROI).

  • 48-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.15 Units / 11.24% ROI
  • 41-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.2 Units / 4.82% ROI
  • 33-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.35 Units / -13.4% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (9/36) against Jon Gray on low breaking pitches this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.

Jon Gray has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 10.1 innings pitched — Shohei Ohtani has the longest active streak at 21.1.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (13/57) against Jon Gray on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 34% (215/632) against Jon Gray with two-strikes since the start of last season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 40% — fifth Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .787 (37 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .422 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .426 (20-for-47) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.022 (46 Total Bases / 45 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .580 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.622 (55 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.031 — third Percentile.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Rangers are just 27-6 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .922.

The Rangers are 6-29 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Rangers are just 17-20 (.459) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Rangers are just 50-100 (.333) on the road since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .466.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Mets are 25-13 (.658) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Mets are 13-4 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Mets are 20-4 (.833) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Mets are 42-2 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .922.

Rangers hitters have drawn 185 walks in 2,715 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .680 (2,715 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .295 (8,766 PA’s) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .285 (5,591 PA’s) on the road since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.

Mets hitters have 180 extra-base hits out of 588 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

The Mets have scored first in 76% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 62 of 677 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Christopher Bassitt (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
  • Jonathan Hernández (Rangers): Elbow, D60
  • Matthew Bush (Rangers): Forearm, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.