- The Mets (48-30) are -135 favorites vs the Rangers (37-39)
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray (4-3), 3.89 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (8-4), 4.84 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Texas Rangers (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Rangers vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rangers are 37-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 42-36 ATS.
Rangers vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -115 | +115 |
| Mets | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -105 | -135 |
Rangers vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 34 away games (+12.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+10.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+10.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 36 games at home (+6.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
Mets vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Mets vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| James McCann | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
Mets vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
| Jon Gray | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -175 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 65 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+10.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 56 games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 63 games (+6.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 39 away games (+4.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 32 games at home (+16.67 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+12.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 78 games (+12.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 32 games at home (+11.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 45-31 against the Run Line (+10.9 Units / 11.08% ROI).
- 37-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.47% ROI
- 32-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -8.81% ROI
- 36-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 1.08% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 42-36 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 6.15% ROI).
- 48-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.15 Units / 11.24% ROI
- 41-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.2 Units / 4.82% ROI
- 33-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.35 Units / -13.4% ROI
Jonathan Gray: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (9/36) against Jon Gray on low breaking pitches this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.
Jon Gray has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 10.1 innings pitched — Shohei Ohtani has the longest active streak at 21.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (13/57) against Jon Gray on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 34% (215/632) against Jon Gray with two-strikes since the start of last season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 40% — fifth Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .787 (37 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .422 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .426 (20-for-47) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.022 (46 Total Bases / 45 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .580 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.622 (55 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.031 — third Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Rangers are just 27-6 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .922.
The Rangers are 6-29 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Rangers are just 17-20 (.459) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Rangers are just 50-100 (.333) on the road since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .466.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Mets are 25-13 (.658) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Mets are 13-4 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Mets are 20-4 (.833) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Mets are 42-2 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .922.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have drawn 185 walks in 2,715 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .680 (2,715 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .295 (8,766 PA’s) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .285 (5,591 PA’s) on the road since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Mets hitters have 180 extra-base hits out of 588 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Mets have scored first in 76% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 62 of 677 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Bassitt (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Jonathan Hernández (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Bush (Rangers): Forearm, D15
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