- The Padres are -165 favorites vs the Rangers
- Rangers starting pitcher: Dane Dunning
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Texas Rangers (+135) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-165) on Friday, July 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Rangers vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rangers are 60-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 50-53 ATS.
Rangers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 -115 | +135 |
| Padres | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -105 | -165 |
Rangers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 69.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Jung has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+12.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 37 games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+9.85 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 61% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+11.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+10.65 Units / 63% ROI)
Padres vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Brad Miller | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Padres vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Brad Miller | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Padres vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brad Miller | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dane Dunning | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -110 |
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 58 of their last 95 games (+25.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 95 games (+24.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 95 games (+23.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 60 of their last 95 games (+21.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 95 games (+11.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 93 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 96 games (+12.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 games (+6.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+5.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 54 games (+4.40 Units / 7% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 61-42 against the Run Line (+21.45 Units / 16.9% ROI).
- 60-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 4.42% ROI
- 54-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +7 Units / 6.17% ROI
- 43-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.45 Units / -14.49% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 50-53 against the Run Line (-6.9 Units / -5.44% ROI).
- 49-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.3 Units / -17.87% ROI
- 41-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.35 Units / -16.86% ROI
- 54-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.45 Units / 8.43% ROI
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dane Dunning allowed a batting average of just .135 vs right-handed batters (fourth best)– 96th Percentile and .355 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (worst among qualified SPs)– first Percentile.
Dane Dunning has a strike rate of 79% (245/312) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB*; League Avg: 70% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (37/257) against Dane Dunning this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB*; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (133/732) against Dane Dunning this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — seventh Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 39% (162/414) against Joe Musgrove this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 48% (145/299) against Joe Musgrove with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 62% of Joe Musgrove’s pitches in the zone (1,309/2,125) since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 13% (6/46) against Joe Musgrove on inside fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rangers are just 109-17 (.865) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Rangers are just 0-35 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Rangers are just 1-116 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Rangers are just 57-44 (.564) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 27-43 (.386) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Padres are just 3-40 (.070) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
The Padres are just 8-47 (.145) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .361 (1,031 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Rangers hitters are slugging .471 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .593 (2,111 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Rangers hitters are slugging .317 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 319 walks in 2,783 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 733 walks in 7,131 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres are batting just .198 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 212 of 2,356 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have an ERA of 8.60 (52.1 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.55.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games on the road since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rangers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 41% of their games this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,385 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.42 (463.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Alek Jacob (Padres): July, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Jonah Heim (Rangers): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Corey Seager (Rangers): Thumb, D10
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Biceps, D15
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