- The Padres are -185 favorites vs the Rangers
- Rangers starting pitcher: Martín Pérez
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Texas Rangers (+150) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-185) on Saturday, July 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Rangers vs Padres Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rangers are 60-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 51-53 ATS.
Rangers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | +1.5 -130 | O 9 +105 | +150 |
| Padres | -1.5 +105 | U 9 -125 | -185 |
Rangers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 68.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 38 games (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Josh Jung has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+10.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 38 games (+9.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.20 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+10.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Mitch Garver | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Mitch Garver | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
Padres vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Mitch Garver | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
| Martin Perez | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -120 |
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+24.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 96 games (+23.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 96 games (+22.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 60 of their last 96 games (+19.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 96 games (+10.55 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 97 games (+13.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 94 games (+11.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games at home (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 55 games (+5.40 Units / 8% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 61-43 against the Run Line (+20.05 Units / 15.63% ROI).
- 60-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 3.71% ROI
- 54-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.9 Units / 5.15% ROI
- 44-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.45 Units / -13.48% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 51-53 against the Run Line (-5.7 Units / -4.46% ROI).
- 50-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.3 Units / -17.03% ROI
- 41-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.45 Units / -17.65% ROI
- 55-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.45 Units / 9.23% ROI
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 12% (31/251) against Martin Perez this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 48% of the time (354/731) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (106/621) against Martin Perez this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Martin Perez has struck out just 15% (56/379) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
11 of Yu Darvish’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 8th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 89th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (9/83) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of .412 (47 Total Bases / 114 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .310 — 10th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown off-speed pitches 67% of the time (246/367) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 96th Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rangers are just 57-44 (.564) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Rangers are just 1-117 (.008) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Rangers are 19-13 (.594) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Rangers are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 3-40 (.070) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .146.
The Padres are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Padres are just 10-94 (.096) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .129.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters are slugging .317 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .592 (2,132 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .360 (1,035 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .830 (1,035 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 326 walks in 2,822 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 740 walks in 7,170 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres are batting just .201 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rangers have won 61% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 214 of 2,364 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,385 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .228.
Padres vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Alek Jacob (Padres): July, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Jonah Heim (Rangers): Wrist, D10
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Corey Seager (Rangers): Thumb, D10
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