- The Rangers are -105 favorites vs the Padres
- Rangers vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Rangers / Padres TV Channel: KDAF | PDTV | MLBN
The Texas Rangers (-110) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-110) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Rangers are 43-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 45-41 ATS.
Rangers vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rangers starting pitcher: Kumar Rocker 3-4, 6.08 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 3-4, 3.89 ERA
Rangers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -105 | -110 |
| Padres | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -115 | -110 |
Rangers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh H. Smith has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.50 Units / 58% ROI)
- Josh H. Smith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.25 Units / 55% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Josh H. Smith has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+11.70 Units / 195% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+16.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Randy Vasquez has hit the Strikeouts Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 55% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 87 games (+20.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 87 games (+18.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 84 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 31 away games (+4.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 72 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 37 games at home (+5.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+5.35 Units / 12% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rangers are 44-42 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -3.76% ROI).
- 43-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -5.15% ROI
- 31-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.3 Units / -30.03% ROI
- 55-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.55 Units / 21.15% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 45-41 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.49% ROI).
- 46-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.22% ROI
- 35-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.35 Units / -18.44% ROI
- 48-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.25 Units / 9.71% ROI
Padres vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jake Burger (TEX) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Padres vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Marcus Semien (TEX) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh H. Smith (TEX) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jake Burger (TEX) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Padres vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Vasquez (SD) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
| Kumar Rocker (TEX) | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -175 |
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (16/43) against Kumar Rocker with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Kumar Rocker has allowed a BABIP of .366 this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .288 — second Percentile.
Kumar Rocker has allowed an OBP of .365 (181 PA’s) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .309 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 39% (39/101) against Kumar Rocker with runners in scoring position this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 95th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez struck out just 8% (16/198) of left-handed batters he faced in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has struck out just 10% (36/379) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .320 (106-for-331) against Randy Vasquez since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .244 — first Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has a strikeout rate of just 28% (48 SO in 169 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rangers are just 3-11 (.214) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rangers are just 16-24 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Rangers are just 22-33 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Rangers are just 8-15 (.348) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Padres (Ranks 10th runs allowed) today.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Padres are 9-29 (.237) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Padres are 24-7 (.774) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Rangers (Ranks 26th runs scored) today.
The Padres are 95-10 (.905) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .862.
The Padres are 16-90 (.151) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rangers are batting just .151 on changeups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .222 (1,675 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (3,204 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Rangers hitters have struck out in just 14% of their PA’s against LHP over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have scored first in 91% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have chased 42% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Rangers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rangers have won just 0% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Rangers have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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