- The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Rangers
- Rangers vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Rangers / Padres TV Channel: RASN | PDTV | MLBN
The Texas Rangers (+100) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Saturday, July 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Rangers are 43-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 46-41 ATS.
Rangers vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rangers starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 4-7, 4.28 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Stephen Kolek 3-3, 3.68 ERA
Rangers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -102 | +100 |
| Padres | +1.5 -200 | U 8 -118 | -120 |
Rangers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Patrick Corbin has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+5.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jack Leiter has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.95 Units / 59% ROI)
- Patrick Corbin has hit the Earned Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Patrick Corbin has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Patrick Corbin has hit the Hits Allowed Over in his last 4 games (+4.20 Units / 88% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+4.50 Units / 75% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+3.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Stephen Kolek has hit the Strikeouts Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.35 Units / 54% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
Padres Best Bets Today:
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rangers are 44-43 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -3.76% ROI).
- 43-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -5.15% ROI
- 31-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.3 Units / -30.03% ROI
- 56-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.55 Units / 21.15% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 46-41 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.49% ROI).
- 47-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.22% ROI
- 35-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.35 Units / -18.44% ROI
- 49-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.25 Units / 9.71% ROI
Padres vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Adolis Garcia (TEX) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (TEX) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Semien (TEX) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Wyatt Langford (TEX) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh H. Smith (TEX) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Marcus Semien (TEX) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Padres vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (TEX) | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
| Stephen Kolek (SD) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .298 (208-for-697) against Patrick Corbin in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .282 (106-for-376) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin allowed a slugging percentage of .370 (123 Total Bases / 332 ABs) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .254 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin had an ERA of 5.62 (174.2 IP)in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.70 — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .303 (59-for-195) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.
Stephen Kolek has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to June 7th — David Peterson has the longest active streak at 8.
Right-handed batters batted .327 (36-for-110) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Left handed batters have a Hard-Hit Rate of 59% (53/90) against Stephen Kolek this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rangers are just 8-16 (.333) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Padres (Ranks ninth runs allowed) today.
The Rangers are just 3-12 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rangers are just 2-24 (.077) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Rangers are 58-12 (.829) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Padres are 25-7 (.781) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Rangers (Ranks 25th runs scored) today.
The Padres are 16-90 (.151) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Padres are 12-2 (.857) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Padres are 9-29 (.237) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rangers are batting just .152 on changeups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.
The Rangers have scored 1.02 runs per game (90/88) in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .222 (1,693 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rangers hitters are slugging just .338 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have scored first in 91% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of 63% with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rangers have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Rangers pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Rangers pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Padres have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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