- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Rangers
- Rangers vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Rangers / Padres TV Channel: ESPN
The Texas Rangers (+115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Sunday, July 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Rangers are 44-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 46-42 ATS.
Rangers vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jack Leiter 4-5, 4.31 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 0-1, 7.72 ERA
Rangers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -110 | +115 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -110 | -135 |
Rangers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+12.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+9.70 Units / 121% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+16.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+15.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+12.60 Units / 126% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 24% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 89 games (+20.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 89 games (+18.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 86 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 33 away games (+6.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 33 away games (+6.50 Units / 16% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games (+17.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+11.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+8.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 39 games at home (+5.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+3.65 Units / 6% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rangers are 45-43 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -3.66% ROI).
- 44-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.8 Units / -5.09% ROI
- 32-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.4 Units / -29.45% ROI
- 56-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.45 Units / 20.58% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 46-42 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.48% ROI).
- 47-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 36-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.45 Units / -18.12% ROI
- 49-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.15 Units / 9.38% ROI
Padres vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jake Burger (TEX) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Adolis Garcia (TEX) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
Padres vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Sam Haggerty (TEX) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Wyatt Langford (TEX) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Marcus Semien (TEX) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Adolis Garcia (TEX) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Wyatt Langford (TEX) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Padres vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Leiter (TEX) | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .178 (23-for-129) against Jack Leiter this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (7-for-42) against Jack Leiter’s low fastballs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .278 — 95th Percentile.
Jack Leiter has a strike rate of just 58% (219/379) in two strike counts this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Jack Leiter has walked 11% of right-handed batters this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (26/108) against Matt Waldron when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 30% (28/93) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (34/182) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 202 of Matt Waldron’s 908 off-speed pitches out of the zone (22%) since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 0 Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rangers are just 3-12 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rangers are just 2-24 (.077) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Rangers are just 52-73 (.416) on the road since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Rangers are 59-12 (.831) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Padres are 25-8 (.758) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Rangers (Ranks 25th runs scored) today.
The Padres are 9-30 (.231) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Padres are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Padres are just 38-3 (.927) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .957.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rangers are batting just .150 on changeups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .602 (976 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .696.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .222 (1,711 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .284 (812 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have scored first in 91% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 20% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have chased 42% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rangers have won just 0% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .204 against Rangers pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Rangers pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rangers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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