- The Rangers are -115 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Texas Rangers (-115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-105) on Wednesday, July 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Rangers vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rangers are 51-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 44-42 ATS.
Rangers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | -1.5 +140 | O 9.5 -105 | -115 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | U 9.5 -115 | -105 |
Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 46 games (+19.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+12.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+9.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+9.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+8.85 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+10.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+9.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 44% ROI)
Red Sox vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| David Hamilton | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Red Sox vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Nate Lowe | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| David Hamilton | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Red Sox vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| David Hamilton | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Jon Gray | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 78 games (+28.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 78 games (+28.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 53 of their last 78 games (+25.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 78 games (+23.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games (+10.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 games (+3.90 Units / 5% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 52-34 against the Run Line (+19.65 Units / 18.44% ROI).
- 51-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.1 Units / 6.58% ROI
- 45-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.9 Units / 7.31% ROI
- 35-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -15.43% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 44-42 against the Run Line (-3.7 Units / -3.27% ROI).
- 43-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.84% ROI
- 45-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.85% ROI
- 39-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -11.78% ROI
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jon Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .220 (38 Total Bases / 173 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (32/89) against Jon Gray in two-strike counts this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .419 (18-for-43) against Jon Gray on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .339 — eighth Percentile.
Jon Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .610 (25 Total Bases / 41 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — first Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 49% (117/240) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 12% (13/108) against Brayan Bello this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (124/216) against Brayan Bello this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (51/81) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rangers are just 52-41 (.559) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Rangers are just 1-109 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Rangers are just 102-17 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Rangers were just 53-11 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Red Sox are just 8-17 (.320) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 32-2 (.941) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Red Sox are 16-12 (.571) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
The Red Sox are 35-2 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters are slugging .500 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Rangers are batting .202 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Rangers hitters are slugging .479 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .365 (899 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .399 (356 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .302 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .339 (2,444 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 201 of 2,208 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Rangers pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have an ERA of 3.50 (355.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
The Rangers have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 248 of 3,244 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 65% of their games at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.04 (900.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Red Sox vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Abdominal, D10
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- José Leclerc (Rangers): Ankle, D15
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