Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 04, 2022, 8:39 AM
  • The Red Sox (66-68) are -125 favorites vs the Rangers (58-74)
  • Rangers starting pitcher: Dane Dunning (3-7), 4.16 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Texas Rangers (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Rangers vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rangers are 55-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 66-65 ATS.

Rangers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rangers+1.5 -185O 9.5 -105+105
Red Sox -1.5 +150U 9.5 -115-125

Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 58 of his last 93 games (+21.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+20.40 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 43 games (+19.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 31 away games (+18.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+13.30 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+17.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+15.35 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games at home (+12.95 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 93 games (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.85 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+2.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 114 games (+7.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games at home (+3.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.25 Units / 21% ROI)

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 70-59 against the Run Line (+5.2 Units / 3.11% ROI).

  • 55-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.35 Units / -12.39% ROI
  • 65-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 4.39% ROI
  • 54-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.85 Units / -11.88% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 66-65 against the Run Line (-2.7 Units / -1.64% ROI).

  • 64-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -6.04% ROI
  • 60-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -4.33% ROI
  • 61-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -3.04% ROI

Dane Dunning has walked 53 of 584 batters (9%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 44% (488/1,103) against Dane Dunning this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — third Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (113/194) against Dane Dunning this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% (217/403) against Dane Dunning this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.

: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (66/226) against Kutter Crawford this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has thrown his slider 40% of the time (369/916) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total SL; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (712/1,296) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 96th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has a strikeout rate of 41% (7 SO in 17 PAs) in close and late situations this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rangers are just 46-9 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Rangers are just 55-66 (.455) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Rangers are 34-9 (.791) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

The Rangers are just 17-59 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Red Sox are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 8-10 (.444) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 4-50 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .302 (3,292 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Rangers hitters have pulled 51% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Rangers on 65% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.. *

Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .648 (3,623 PA’s) in the first 3 innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Red Sox hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 3,044 of their 11,237 plate appearances (27%) since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Rangers pitchers have walked 113 of 1,176 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Rangers pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 477 of 5,045 batters (10%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Red Sox pitchers have won 34% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Red Sox have won 44% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (480.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.

Red Sox vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Nicholas Pivetta (Red Sox): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Right Elbow, D60
  • Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
  • Spencer Howard (Rangers): Shoulder, D15
  • Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
  • Jonathan Gray (Rangers): Side, D15
  • Joseph Barlow (Rangers): Finger, D15
  • Cole Ragans (Rangers): Calf, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.