- The Rays are -115 favorites vs the Astros
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane McClanahan
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Tampa Bay Rays (-115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-105) on Friday, July 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Rays vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 62-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 52-51 ATS.
Rays vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -110 | -115 |
| Astros | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -110 | -105 |
Rays vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+14.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+13.20 Units / 63% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+11.00 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- Corey Julks has hit the Hits Under in his last 8 games (+10.80 Units / 106% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.60 Units / 34% ROI)
Astros vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Astros vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Astros vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Astros vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Cristian Javier | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 18 games (+12.20 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 away games (+9.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 57 of their last 105 games (+5.05 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 105 games (+2.35 Units / 2% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 72 games (+8.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 68 games (+7.60 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 80 games (+6.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+5.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+4.30 Units / 12% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 54-51 against the Run Line (+2.35 Units / 1.88% ROI).
- 62-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.44% ROI
- 54-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.05 Units / 1.77% ROI
- 47-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -10.68% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 52-51 against the Run Line (-3.2 Units / -2.41% ROI).
- 58-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -1.22% ROI
- 50-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.75 Units / -5.88% ROI
- 51-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -2.99% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .198 (63-for-318) against Shane McClanahan this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 93rd Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (407/1,349) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has allowed an OBP of just .209 (254 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 85th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 54% (121/223) against Shane McClanahan on changeups this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (78/294) against Cristian Javier this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Cristian Javier has walked 6 of 22 batters (27%) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 14% (10/74) against Cristian Javier when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (230/423) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rays are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Rays are 35-8 (.814) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .682.
The Rays are 13-8 (.619) after a home loss this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Rays are 10-16 (.385) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Astros are 76-10 (.884) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 66-34 (.660) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Astros are 13-10 (.565) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Astros are 16-8 (.667) after a road loss this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have a winning percentage of 66% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Rays have scored first in 61% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .777 (749 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Rays hitters are slugging .453 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 513 strikeouts in 2,929 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 893 strikeouts in 5,010 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have put 44% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 697 of 9,784 batters (7%) since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Rays pitchers have walked 151 of 2,373 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Astros vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Yandy Díaz (Rays): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Taylor Walls (Rays): Oblique, D10
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Francisco Mejía (Rays): Knee, D10
- Zachary Eflin (Rays): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
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