- The Astros are -135 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown
- Watch the game on FOX
The Tampa Bay Rays (+115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-135) on Saturday, July 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Rays vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 63-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 53-51 ATS.
Rays vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 +100 | +115 |
| Astros | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -120 | -135 |
Rays vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 60.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+15.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+12.20 Units / 56% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 away games (+10.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.00 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Corey Julks has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 106% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+10.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Corey Julks has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 71% ROI)
Astros vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
Astros vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Astros vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Astros vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -115 |
| Taj Bradley | 5.5 +135 | 5.5 -175 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 19 games (+13.20 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+10.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 57 of their last 106 games (+5.05 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 106 games (+1.75 Units / 1% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 games (+8.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 81 games (+7.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 69 games (+6.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+5.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 54-52 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 1.07% ROI).
- 63-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 1.02% ROI
- 54-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.95 Units / 0.81% ROI
- 48-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.3 Units / -9.72% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 53-51 against the Run Line (-2.2 Units / -1.64% ROI).
- 58-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -1.89% ROI
- 50-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.85 Units / -6.77% ROI
- 52-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -2.08% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (57/161) against Taj Bradley on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to June 21st — tied with Joe Ryan and Jake Irvin for the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Taj Bradley has struck out 34% (58/169) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (61/194) against Taj Bradley this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (83/144) against Hunter Brown this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (105/176) against Hunter Brown’s curve and slider this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (63/114) against Hunter Brown in two-strike counts this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 89th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has thrown breaking pitches 51% of the time (458/896) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rays are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Rays are 50-2 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Rays are 63-42 (.600) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 35-8 (.814) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Astros are 46-34 (.575) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Astros are 32-17 (.653) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Astros are 16-8 (.667) after a road loss this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Astros are 73-16 (.820) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .571 (110 PA’s) against LHP over the last 30 days (15 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Rays hitters are slugging .453 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .777 (749 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Rays have scored first in 61% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 900 strikeouts in 5,036 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters are slugging .586 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Astros hitters have put 44% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Astros hitters have just 520 strikeouts in 2,955 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Rays pitchers have walked 23 of 457 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Rays pitchers have walked 698 of 9,820 batters (7%) since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.17 (1198.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Astros vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Taylor Walls (Rays): Oblique, D10
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Francisco Mejía (Rays): Knee, D10
- Zachary Eflin (Rays): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
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