- The Astros (102-55) are -160 favorites vs the Rays (86-71)
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane McClanahan (12-7), 2.51 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier (10-9), 2.65 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Tampa Bay Rays (+135) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-160) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Rays vs Astros Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 86-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 84-73 ATS.
Rays vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -165 | O 6.5 -105 | +135 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 6.5 -115 | -160 |
Rays vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+14.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 42 of his last 74 games at home (+17.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+14.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+9.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 32 games at home (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Astros vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Astros vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
Astros vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Astros vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+9.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 away games (+5.18 Units / 86% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.55 Units / 28% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 144 games (+28.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 155 games (+22.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 95 of their last 141 games (+17.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 77 of their last 138 games (+16.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+13.25 Units / 23% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 78-79 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -0.79% ROI).
- 86-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -1.38% ROI
- 70-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.5 Units / -7.36% ROI
- 77-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -0.76% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 84-73 against the Run Line (+11.7 Units / 6.28% ROI).
- 102-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.5 Units / 4.51% ROI
- 59-88 when betting on the total runs Over for -36.55 Units / -21.27% ROI
- 88-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.3 Units / 12.81% ROI
Shane McClanahan: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane McClanahan has allowed an OBP of just .065 (31 PA’s) in late innings this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .188 (92-for-490) against Shane McClanahan this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 95th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has allowed an OBP of just .237 (523 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .192 (111-for-578) against Shane McClanahan this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 93rd Percentile.
Cristian Javier: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristian Javier has struck out 40% (104/258) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .093 (52-for-559) against Cristian Javier with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .166 — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .150 (35-for-234) against Cristian Javier this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (87/322) against Cristian Javier this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Rays are 40-11 (.784) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Rays are 153-22 (.874) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Rays are 101-18 (.849) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Astros are 64-4 (.941) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Astros are 44-5 (.898) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Astros are 51-25 (.671) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Astros are 84-5 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have grounded into 25 double plays in 398 opportunities (6%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Rays hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rays hitters have drawn 238 walks in 2,020 PA’s (12%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 308 strikeouts in 1,775 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 688 strikeouts in 3,856 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .188 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros hitters have just 818 strikeouts in 4,516 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 809 of 11,766 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 166 of 2,868 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 977 of 13,978 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 373 of 5,768 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.82 (689.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 22% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
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