- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin, 3.37 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright, – ERA
The Tampa Bay Rays (+120) visit CoolToday Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-145) on Monday, March 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in North Port.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Rays vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Rays are 7-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 8-8 ATS.
Rays vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -160 | O 9 -105 | +120 |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -115 | -145 |
Rays vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 64.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.75 Units / 138% ROI)
- Christian Bethancour has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.30 Units / 110% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 86% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 53 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 away games (+9.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 61 games (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 10-6 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 21.41% ROI).
- 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -7.59% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -2.88% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -4.2% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 8-8 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -3.65% ROI).
- 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -2.18% ROI
- 9-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 8.31% ROI
- 7-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.9 Units / -16.25% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has located his fastball low 47% of the time (725/1,542) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Zach Eflin had a strikeout rate of just 6% (5/84) in PAs ending on inside fastballs last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — fifth Percentile.
Zach Eflin has located his fastballs down 47% of the time (725/1,542) since the start of the 2021 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted .444 (20-for-45) against Zach Eflin on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .338 — third Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 55% (275/501) against Kyle Wright last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Kyle Wright induced opposing hitters to ground into 26 double plays in 136 opportunities (19%) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has induced opposing hitters to ground into 26 double plays in 145 opportunities (18%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Wright located his fastball up for a strike just 49% (255/521) of the time last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 60% — second Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Rays are 51-30 (.630) at home last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Rays are 40-11 (.784) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Rays are just 72-11 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have grounded into 167 double plays in 2,182 opportunities (8%) since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Rays hitters put 39% of their swings in play against LHP last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Rays hitters struck out just 29 times in 177 PA’s (16%) against LHP over the last 30 days of the regular season (17 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .443 against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Braves hitters slugged .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (1,216 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .753 (4,444 PA’s) against RHP last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 168 of 2,905 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 820 of 11,928 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 988 of 14,140 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers walked 384 of 5,930 batters (7%) last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .185 against Braves pitchers with the shift last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
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