• The Guardians are -140 favorites vs the Rays
• Rays vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Rays / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | RATV | FS1

The Tampa Bay Rays (+118) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-140) on April 27, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Rays are 16-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 15-14 ATS.

Rays vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Rays starting pitcher: Steven Matz 3-1, 4.88 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Parker Messick 3-0, 1.80 ERA

Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Rays vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:

• Junior Caminero has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 away games (+11.75 Units / 168% ROI)
• Junior Caminero has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+9.40 Units / 46% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.65 Units / 45% ROI)
• Junior Caminero has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+7.65 Units / 109% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Daniel Schneemann has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+17.50 Units / 194% ROI)
• Daniel Schneemann has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 56% ROI)
• Daniel Schneemann has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.50 Units / 50% ROI)
• Daniel Schneemann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 51% ROI)
• Daniel Schneemann has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 101% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 away games (+10.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 away games (+8.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.20 Units / 35% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+10.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 16-11 against the Run Line (+5.25 Units / 15.2% ROI).

• 16-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 15.71% ROI
• 16-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +6 Units / 20.34% ROI
• 9-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.95 Units / -29.93% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 15-14 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 0.68% ROI).

• 15-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 7.24% ROI
• 15-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.47% ROI
• 14-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -7.79% ROI

Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Rays are 13-0 (1.000) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.

The Rays are 11-4 (.733) after a win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Rays are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Rays are 13-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .858.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Guardians are 38-4 (.884) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .747.

The Guardians are 11-2 (.846) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Guardians are 9-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .858.

The Guardians are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.

Rays Hitting Stats & Trends

Rays hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP this season — best in MLB.

Rays hitters have missed on just 19% of swings this season — best in MLB.

Rays hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 35% in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB.

The Rays are batting .214 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters have struck out in 35% of their PA’s in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB.

7% of Guardians’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (81/1,076 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .574 (806 PA’s) in righty-righty matchups since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have struck out in 32% of their PA’s in righty-righty matchups since the 2025 season — highest in MLB.

Rays Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Rays pitchers this month (22 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have struck out 27% of left-handed batters they faced this season — best in MLB.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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