- The Rays are -185 favorites vs the Guardians
- Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Tampa Bay Rays (-185) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+150) on Friday, September 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Rays vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 82-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 68-66 ATS.
Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 -105 | O 7.5 +100 | -185 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -115 | U 7.5 -120 | +150 |
Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 76.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+12.70 Units / 67% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.75 Units / 63% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+10.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.95 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+10.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+9.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1500 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Guardians vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -550 |
Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Cal Quantrill | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 75 of their last 134 games (+8.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 away games (+3.10 Units / 16% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 92 games (+11.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 68% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 70-63 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 4.43% ROI).
- 82-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 4.39% ROI
- 71-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.95 Units / 4.71% ROI
- 58-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.15 Units / -13.19% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 68-66 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -0.18% ROI).
- 64-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.5 Units / -9.87% ROI
- 53-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.1 Units / -21.16% ROI
- 76-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.35 Units / 12.57% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Glasnow has a strikeout rate of 58% (69 SO in 118 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 99th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 37% (48/130) against Tyler Glasnow when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Tyler Glasnow has thrown breaking pitches 75% of the time (62/83) vs left-handed batters over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (241/667) against Tyler Glasnow this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon elevated 50% of his pitches (357/711) on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon had a strikeout rate of 33% (237/710) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon elevated 47% of his pitches (1,125/2,413) against right-handed batters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
21 of Carlos Rodon’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in 2022 — 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 95th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 15-22 (.405) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Rays are 39-13 (.750) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Rays are 62-2 (.969) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 31-103 (.231) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are 21-111 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Guardians are just 11-20 (.355) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 27% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Rays have scored first in 63% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .781 (1,554 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,072 strikeouts in 11,190 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .649 (3,115 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 754 of 10,859 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 165 of 2,632 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.41 (607.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.08 (380.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Guardians pitchers have allowed a run just 27% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
The Guardians have allowed 3.85 runs per game (254/66) at home this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.61.
Guardians vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Michael Kelly (Guardians): Back, D15
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Side, D10
- Gavin Williams (Guardians): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Forearm, D60
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Elbow, D10
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