- The Guardians (86-67) are -150 favorites vs the Rays (84-69)
- Rays starting pitcher: Corey Kluber (10-9), 4.29 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (12-8), 2.81 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Tampa Bay Rays (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-150) on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Rays vs Guardians Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 84-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-72 ATS.
Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -185 | O 6.5 -105 | +125 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +150 | U 6.5 -115 | -150 |
Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+13.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+17.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 71 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -250 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -140 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Guardians vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -140 |
| Corey Kluber | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 42 games (+4.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 52 away games (+4.50 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 134 games (+23.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+11.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+11.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 60 games at home (+9.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.58 Units / 35% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 75-78 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -1.88% ROI).
- 84-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -1.71% ROI
- 68-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.2 Units / -7.37% ROI
- 75-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -0.64% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-72 against the Run Line (+5.95 Units / 3.11% ROI).
- 86-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +19 Units / 9.94% ROI
- 68-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.3 Units / -9.1% ROI
- 76-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 0.62% ROI
Corey Kluber: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corey Kluber has walked 19 of 648 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Corey Kluber has walked 10 of 353 right-handed batters (3%) this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.
Corey Kluber has allowed a slugging percentage of .658 (73 Total Bases / 111 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .417 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (176/489) against Corey Kluber this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has not walked a batter in his last 21.1 innings pitched — Brusdar Graterol has the longest active streak at 29.0.
Opponents are hitting just .190 (45-for-237) against Shane Bieber versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (39/110) against Shane Bieber on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Shane Bieber has not walked any of the 56 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are 52-8 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Rays are 87-25 (.777) when scoring in the first inning since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .649.
The Rays are 35-8 (.814) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Rays are just 70-10 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 15-55 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 62-3 (.954) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Guardians are 50-6 (.893) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OBP of .292 (291 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Rays are batting .217 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .166.
Rays hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,040 strikeouts in 5,820 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 741 strikeouts in 4,341 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 320 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 363 of 5,616 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 164 of 2,830 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 967 of 13,826 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 799 of 11,614 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 9 of 224 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 26 of 531 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH since the start of last season (7,682 balls in play) — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Guardians vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
- Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Yandy Díaz (Rays): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
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