Rays vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 27, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians (86-67) are -150 favorites vs the Rays (84-69)
  • Rays starting pitcher: Corey Kluber (10-9), 4.29 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (12-8), 2.81 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Tampa Bay Rays (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-150) on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Rays vs Guardians Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rays are 84-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-72 ATS.

Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays+1.5 -185O 6.5 -105+125
Guardians -1.5 +150U 6.5 -115-150

Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Rays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+13.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+17.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 71 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)

Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Austin Hedges 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Josh Naylor 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Myles Straw 0.5 +1250 0.5

Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +160 1.5 -250
Austin Hedges 0.5 +100 0.5 -140
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Josh Naylor 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Myles Straw 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Guardians vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Austin Hedges 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Josh Naylor 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Myles Straw 0.5 +310 0.5 -550

Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Shane Bieber 6.5 -105 6.5 -140
Corey Kluber 3.5 -120 3.5 -115
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.40 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 42 games (+4.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 52 away games (+4.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 134 games (+23.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+11.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+11.10 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 60 games at home (+9.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.58 Units / 35% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 75-78 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -1.88% ROI).

  • 84-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -1.71% ROI
  • 68-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.2 Units / -7.37% ROI
  • 75-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -0.64% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-72 against the Run Line (+5.95 Units / 3.11% ROI).

  • 86-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +19 Units / 9.94% ROI
  • 68-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.3 Units / -9.1% ROI
  • 76-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 0.62% ROI

Corey Kluber has walked 19 of 648 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Corey Kluber has walked 10 of 353 right-handed batters (3%) this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.

Corey Kluber has allowed a slugging percentage of .658 (73 Total Bases / 111 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .417 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (176/489) against Corey Kluber this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.

Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Shane Bieber has not walked a batter in his last 21.1 innings pitched — Brusdar Graterol has the longest active streak at 29.0.

Opponents are hitting just .190 (45-for-237) against Shane Bieber versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (39/110) against Shane Bieber on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

Shane Bieber has not walked any of the 56 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Rays are 52-8 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

The Rays are 87-25 (.777) when scoring in the first inning since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .649.

The Rays are 35-8 (.814) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Rays are just 70-10 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Guardians are 15-55 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Guardians are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 62-3 (.954) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Guardians are 50-6 (.893) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Rays hitters have an OBP of .292 (291 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.

The Rays are batting .217 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .166.

Rays hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,040 strikeouts in 5,820 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 741 strikeouts in 4,341 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Guardians hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 320 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Rays pitchers have walked 363 of 5,616 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 164 of 2,830 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 967 of 13,826 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays pitchers have walked 799 of 11,614 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 9 of 224 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 26 of 531 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH since the start of last season (7,682 balls in play) — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Guardians vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
  • Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Yandy Díaz (Rays): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.