Rays vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 28, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians (86-68) are -125 favorites vs the Rays (85-69)
  • Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow (-), ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (11-11), 3.04 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Tampa Bay Rays (+105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-125) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+180).

The Rays vs Guardians Over/Under is 6 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rays are 85-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-73 ATS.

Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays+1.5 -225O 6 +100+105
Guardians -1.5 +180U 6 -120-125

Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 57.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Rays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+13.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+17.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 71 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)

Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +1000 0.5
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Josh Naylor 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Luke Maile 0.5 +1150 0.5
Oscar Gonzalez 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Josh Naylor 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Luke Maile 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Oscar Gonzalez 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Guardians vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Josh Naylor 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Luke Maile 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Oscar Gonzalez 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Glasnow 3.5 +130 3.5 -190
Triston McKenzie 5.5 -160 5.5 +115
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 23% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 76-78 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -1.34% ROI).

  • 85-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -1.08% ROI
  • 69-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -6.72% ROI
  • 75-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.27% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-73 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 2.57% ROI).

  • 86-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.45 Units / 9.06% ROI
  • 69-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -8.45% ROI
  • 76-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.03% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Triston McKenzie allowed a batting average of just .171 vs right-handed batters (10th best)– 83rd Percentile and .304 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (10th worst among qualified SPs)– 18th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (154/472) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has a strike rate of 75% (142/189) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has a strikeout rate of 70% (21 SO in 30 PAs) with two-strikes — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Rays are just 71-10 (.877) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Rays are 35-8 (.814) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Rays are 53-8 (.869) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

The Rays are 87-25 (.777) when scoring in the first inning since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .648.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Guardians are 15-56 (.211) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Guardians are 13-6 (.684) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 11-59 (.157) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 59-3 (.952) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.

Rays hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Rays hitters have put 47% of their swings in play against LHP this month (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Rays hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Rays hitters have just 19 strikeouts in 126 PA’s (15%) against LHP this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Guardians hitters have just 749 strikeouts in 4,382 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 323 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,050 strikeouts in 5,870 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Rays pitchers have walked 804 of 11,664 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 72 of 1,379 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rays pitchers have walked 972 of 13,876 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays pitchers have walked 203 of 3,369 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 22 of 538 batters (4%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Guardians pitchers have walked 86 of 1,386 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
  • Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.