- The Guardians (86-68) are -125 favorites vs the Rays (85-69)
- Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow (-), – ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (11-11), 3.04 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Tampa Bay Rays (+105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-125) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+180).
The Rays vs Guardians Over/Under is 6 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 85-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-73 ATS.
Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -225 | O 6 +100 | +105 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +180 | U 6 -120 | -125 |
Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 57.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+13.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+17.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 71 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Luke Maile | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Luke Maile | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Guardians vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Luke Maile | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -190 |
| Triston McKenzie | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.95 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 76-78 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -1.34% ROI).
- 85-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -1.08% ROI
- 69-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -6.72% ROI
- 75-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.27% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-73 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 2.57% ROI).
- 86-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.45 Units / 9.06% ROI
- 69-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -8.45% ROI
- 76-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.03% ROI
Tyler Glasnow: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie allowed a batting average of just .171 vs right-handed batters (10th best)– 83rd Percentile and .304 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (10th worst among qualified SPs)– 18th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (154/472) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has a strike rate of 75% (142/189) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has a strikeout rate of 70% (21 SO in 30 PAs) with two-strikes — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are just 71-10 (.877) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rays are 35-8 (.814) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Rays are 53-8 (.869) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Rays are 87-25 (.777) when scoring in the first inning since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .648.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 15-56 (.211) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are 13-6 (.684) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 11-59 (.157) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 59-3 (.952) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rays hitters have put 47% of their swings in play against LHP this month (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Rays hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Rays hitters have just 19 strikeouts in 126 PA’s (15%) against LHP this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 749 strikeouts in 4,382 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 323 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,050 strikeouts in 5,870 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 804 of 11,664 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 72 of 1,379 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays pitchers have walked 972 of 13,876 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 203 of 3,369 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 22 of 538 batters (4%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Guardians pitchers have walked 86 of 1,386 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
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