Rays vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 29

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 29, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Rays (85-70) are -130 favorites vs the Guardians (87-68)
  • Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (9-4), 2.56 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (14-5), 3.49 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Tampa Bay Rays (-130) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+110) on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Rays vs Guardians Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rays are 85-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-74 ATS.

Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays-1.5 +140O 6.5 -115-130
Guardians +1.5 -165U 6.5 -105+110

Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Rays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+13.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+17.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 71 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)

Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Austin Hedges 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000
Gabriel Arias 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Myles Straw 0.5 +1450 0.5

Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Austin Hedges 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Gabriel Arias 0.5 -115 0.5 -120
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Myles Straw 0.5 -150 0.5 +105

Guardians vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Austin Hedges 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Gabriel Arias 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Myles Straw 0.5 +340 0.5 -650

Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cal Quantrill 4.5 +125 4.5 -175
Jeffrey Springs 4.5 -120 4.5 -115
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 77-78 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -0.8% ROI).

  • 85-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -1.54% ROI
  • 69-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -7.39% ROI
  • 76-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -0.69% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-74 against the Run Line (+3.95 Units / 2.04% ROI).

  • 87-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.45 Units / 9.51% ROI
  • 69-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.5 Units / -9.09% ROI
  • 77-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 0.56% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (23/72) against Jeffrey Springs this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 35% (497/1,435) against Jeffrey Springs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 43% of the time (676/1,563) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 43% of the time (878/2,055) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

30 of Cal Quantrill’s 99 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .397 (23-for-58) against Cal Quantrill this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (214/1,259) against Cal Quantrill since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has thrown his slider 38% of the time (735/1,948) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 96th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Rays are 51-30 (.630) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Rays are just 71-10 (.877) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Rays are 35-8 (.814) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Rays are 39-11 (.780) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Guardians are 15-56 (.211) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Guardians are 46-35 (.568) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Guardians are 11-59 (.157) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 24-7 (.774) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Rays hitters have an OBP of .400 (130 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Rays are batting .310 against LHP this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Rays hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Rays hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Guardians hitters have just 757 strikeouts in 4,410 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,064 strikeouts in 5,906 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 323 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,702 strikeouts in 8,363 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Rays pitchers have walked 808 of 11,700 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 372 of 5,702 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 73 of 1,389 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rays pitchers have walked 976 of 13,912 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 4 of 137 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 25 of 540 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.55 (710.0 IP) on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.

Guardians vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
  • Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Yandy Díaz (Rays): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.