- The Rays (85-70) are -130 favorites vs the Guardians (87-68)
- Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (9-4), 2.56 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (14-5), 3.49 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Tampa Bay Rays (-130) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+110) on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Rays vs Guardians Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 85-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-74 ATS.
Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +140 | O 6.5 -115 | -130 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | U 6.5 -105 | +110 |
Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+13.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+17.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 71 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1450 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -120 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Guardians vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -175 |
| Jeffrey Springs | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.40 Units / 23% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 77-78 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -0.8% ROI).
- 85-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -1.54% ROI
- 69-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -7.39% ROI
- 76-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -0.69% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-74 against the Run Line (+3.95 Units / 2.04% ROI).
- 87-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.45 Units / 9.51% ROI
- 69-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.5 Units / -9.09% ROI
- 77-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 0.56% ROI
Jeffrey Springs: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (23/72) against Jeffrey Springs this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 35% (497/1,435) against Jeffrey Springs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 43% of the time (676/1,563) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 43% of the time (878/2,055) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
30 of Cal Quantrill’s 99 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .397 (23-for-58) against Cal Quantrill this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (214/1,259) against Cal Quantrill since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has thrown his slider 38% of the time (735/1,948) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 96th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are 51-30 (.630) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Rays are just 71-10 (.877) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rays are 35-8 (.814) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Rays are 39-11 (.780) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 15-56 (.211) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are 46-35 (.568) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Guardians are 11-59 (.157) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 24-7 (.774) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OBP of .400 (130 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Rays are batting .310 against LHP this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Rays hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rays hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 757 strikeouts in 4,410 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,064 strikeouts in 5,906 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 323 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,702 strikeouts in 8,363 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 808 of 11,700 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 372 of 5,702 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 73 of 1,389 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays pitchers have walked 976 of 13,912 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 4 of 137 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 25 of 540 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.55 (710.0 IP) on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Guardians vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Yandy Díaz (Rays): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
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